Mike McGlone|Apr 04, 2026 17:50
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation
January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Jan27 gas at $4.86 on April 2 appears well priced for a third straight colder-than-normal winter, supported by surging oil. If the price of the primary US source of heat, electricity and fertilizer remains elevated, it will be difficult to argue that affordability has improved during the US midterms. Jan27 sits at the top of the gas price curve and rolls to front month in November.
My bias is that natural gas, bond yields and crude are more likely to face downward revisions into year-end -- particularly if surging metals and energy volatility continue spilling into the stock market. Demand destruction could be a dominant force in 2026.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tct82ikiupts {BI COMD}
#naturalgas #crudeoil #energy #bonds @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)
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