Another Crude Surge to Fade or New Bull Phase? When crude oil spikes, it can be its own worst enemy. Will 2026 be different? My bias is that WTI's 1Q high of about $120 a barrel may mirror peaks of $147 in 2008 and $130 in 2022. The graphic highlights a key reason: the surplus of US and Canadian crude and liquid fuels approaching a record high 8 million barrels a day. Potentially more significant for post-inflation deflation is US stock-market cap-to-GDP at about 2.2x, the highest year-end mark since 1928. It's rare for surging metals and energy volatility to not spill over into equities. Did the closing of the Strait of Hormuz spark massive cleansing of crude shorts or the start of a new bull market? The December future at $72 on April 2 will roll to front just before the midterms. I see Dec26 more likely to head toward $50 than stay above $100 -- normal reversion vs. recession. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tcptdxkip3lf {BI COMD} #crudeoil #stockmarket #Iran @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)