Bank reserves have fallen below the $3 trillion mark again, indicating a possible liquidity squeeze in April. Previously, we talked about the slow upward trend of US dollar liquidity represented by bank reserves starting from the end of February, from 2.96 trillion at the end of February, to 3.01 trillion at the beginning of March, and then to 3.037 trillion in mid March. Bank reserves are the most important component and variable of US dollar liquidity (even just looking at the trend changes of bank reserves). Bank reserves are slowly recovering, and the most sensitive pie to liquidity changes will soon be reflected. However, recently the reserve requirements of Bank of America have fallen below the $3 trillion mark, and short-term liquidity has begun to tighten slightly. In fact, liquidity may not be good until late April. The logic lies in: Previous article on US dollar liquidity: https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2029816341361025505? According to the quarterly refinancing plan announced by the US Treasury Department in early February, the TGA balance at the end of March was around $850 billion, and due to a large influx of tax revenue during the April tax season, TGA is expected to peak at $1.05 trillion in mid to late April. ” At the end of March, the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance was indeed around 850 billion US dollars, which means that the TGA scale will increase by 200 billion US dollars in the next three weeks, far exceeding the current monthly short-term bond purchase scale of 40 billion US dollars by the Federal Reserve. The core is the arrival of the tax season, and the increase in TGA is likely to interrupt the slow upward trend of bank reserves from the end of February to March, starting to turn downwards. The decrease in bank reserve size and the tightening of US dollar liquidity make it difficult for the most sensitive pie to liquidity changes to harden. And it may weaken further, so caution is needed. At the beginning of February, we talked about the expectation of Da Bing hitting the bottom in the "spring market" of the US stock market. https://(x.com)/qinba Frank/status/201959838342480965, it is possible that we could actually see it in April. The previous opportunity saw that after the TGA account reached a high point of $1.05 trillion in late April, the Ministry of Finance increased its spending efforts, which means that the government will increase its spending speed. At that time, bank reserves will also bottom out and rebound, driving liquidity to rebound again.