Wintermute: Bitcoin may experience unilateral fluctuations due to market structure brewing

On March 31st, Wintermute pointed out in the latest market weekly report that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contracts to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, and the fluctuation of funding rates has dropped to a low cycle level, indicating high market leverage but insufficient consensus on direction. The current structure is close to "compression and accumulation", or brewing significant unilateral fluctuations. If geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall to around $100, short positions may be squeezed to $70000 to $74000; If the situation escalates and oil prices rise to $120, Bitcoin may fall to just over $60000 or even reach a high of $50000. The market structure indicates that the volatility may exceed the level reflected by spot, forward contract, and option prices.