qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Mar 31, 2026 04:15
Last night they were still threatening, and this morning they said they were willing to end the military operation even if the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Can Trump return? If the military operation really ends here. What does it mean? 1) This means that Iran has actually gained complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the toll for passage has been implemented. Some people believe that as long as the United States withdraws from Iran, it will open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise it will be an enemy to other countries. But from the perspective of Iran's mentality, I finally managed to control why the US military stopped halfway through the strait and let it go: then normalize the fees. It happened to be this morning that the Iranian parliament had already passed the proposal for the passage fee in the Strait of Hormuz, while strictly enforcing the passage of ships from hostile countries and allies. Is it reasonable for Iran to use the Strait of Hormuz toll to compensate for its war losses? 2) It means that the US military has completely abandoned its military bases along the Persian Gulf coast, not that it may abandon its bases around the Persian Gulf by then. Especially the base of the Fifth Fleet Command in Bahrain, because ending the operation now means acknowledging that the US military is not capable of using force to open the strait, since it cannot be opened. Iran will not release it either. The naval bases along the Persian Gulf coast are almost abandoned, and the air force bases may not dare to continue to settle in. 3) The Gulf countries used to be allies and allies of the United States, paying a large amount of protection fees and various investments to the United States. Now Trump said that he could not move, and he would withdraw first. The Gulf countries are in chaos, which means they are going to negotiate with Iran, and the strait passage fee is essentially a protection fee. Does this mean Iran wants to become a protectorate? Will Middle Eastern princes still pay a large amount of protection fees to the United States and invest a large amount of funds in the United States? Will some funds be withdrawn from the United States? What is another situation? That is to let Israel take the lead, Middle Eastern countries pay for the war, and the United States becomes the behind the scenes support. If that's the case, Iran will still firmly hold onto the strait, further narrowing its passage range, and oil prices will continue to remain high. And if the United States itself thinks it can't fight, why can Israel fight on its own? Moreover, Israel's own strength has also suffered significant losses in the past month. In the past two days, the pro democracy guerrilla forces have taken the initiative to capture and control a small piece of land in northern Israel. Trump is still closed in the Strait of Hormuz, and the action is ended in the absence of an agreement between the two sides. Still unable to solve the problem, and even more disastrous for the United States, will Middle Eastern countries gradually stop allowing American troops under Iran's pressure in the future? Have you talked about https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/203263527417811617 before? If s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A is like this, it is really the beginning of the disintegration of the US led order. Now, Trump's dilemma lies in this. To give way in this regard is actually a huge political failure. The oil price may fall back, but it is difficult to return to the previous stage. It is still difficult to explain the huge geopolitical failure of the domestic central line. Even if Trump really wanted to back down at this time, the realistic constraints forced him to make a concession at this time. In my personal opinion, smoke bombs are the main component, and I may have considered this possibility. But the cost of backing down is enormous, although the cost of upgrading and increasing is not small at all.
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