The time has come to test our judgment—something unprecedented in the past decade, with no roadmap to follow! From my observations, in the past 10 years, there has never been a bear market where BTC received such strong support at the "<10y Realized Price (purple line)"—a level close to the true average cost of turnover. Yes, this has never happened in the past decade! And this time, even though the Nasdaq has already dropped -10%, BTC has managed to stay above <10y RP ($64,000) for 2 months now. But if we look closely, we can see some differences in the details compared to the previous two instances. In 2018 and 2022, before breaking below the purple line, BTC faced a critical decision: whether the price could break above the STH-RP (red line, short-term holder average cost line). When the price failed to break through and the red line continued to press downward, BTC eventually broke below the purple line. However, during February-March 2026, the STH-RP did not exert substantial pressure on BTC's price, and to this day, there is still some distance ($83,000). So, moving forward, there are only two possible scenarios: 1. BTC remains above the purple line and, when the red line approaches, breaks upward to complete a trend reversal. 2. As the red line continues to decline and exerts increasing pressure, more short-term holders choose to exit near their cost basis, ultimately causing BTC to break below the purple line. Scenario 1 represents the end of the bear market, while Scenario 2 signals the market falling into a deep bear zone, with no short-term recovery in sight. If you're asking me which scenario is more likely? Personally, I lean toward the latter, even though emotionally, I hope for the former!