Using positions to bet on a great recession, the US stock market has risen for decades without experiencing a decent bear market. It feels like it has really reached its peak, and the war may have only accelerated the cycle of one or two years. There is no asset in the world that only rises and never falls. Previously, after the positive financial reports of Nvidia and Micron, they both rose first and then quickly fell back, which made me feel the shadow of insufficient liquidity in the cryptocurrency market in the later stage. Not to mention that there are still several big trucks going online this year, and the only way to increase liquidity is to cut interest rates. However, the current inflation situation in the United States makes the US afraid to cut interest rates, and even the market is pricing for a rate hike. I don't know how the Federal Reserve will solve this dilemma, but my bet is that it won't solve it, so the stock market will fall first. If the Federal Reserve ignores inflation and chooses to cut interest rates to save the stock market, the stock market will rebound in the short term, and my short positions will suffer losses. Therefore, I have added long SOFR3 as a hedge, which is the benchmark for US bond rates. If we choose to maintain inflation without cutting interest rates or even raising interest rates, the stock market will continue to collapse, short positions will profit, and SOFR3 will incur losses. The asymmetry here is that the price of SOFR3 in March 27 was even lower than the current price, which means as long as the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, my SOFR3 will make money next year. My judgment is that there will be no interest rate hike because it will not generate more oil, so it cannot solve the fundamental problem. Some thoughts on opening the warehouse yesterday.