Got totally played by OPN. Checked Dune, and the trading volume in the past few days barely ranks second (but it's a huge gap compared to the first place, Polymarket). Meanwhile, daily active users have dropped to just 300-500. Is it that Asian users aren't into prediction markets, or do all Asian prediction market players only use Polymarket? Saw a 10% arbitrage opportunity on @opinionlabsxyz, and no one's taking it (though the settlement date being at the end of the year is definitely an issue). Right now, the probability of Polymarket issuing a token with a market cap > $5B is only 47% (not because people don't believe in this valuation, but because if no token is issued by year-end, it'll resolve as No). Meanwhile, the probability of issuing a token by year-end is 57%. So basically, buying both >$5B + no token issuance by year-end only costs 47c + 43c = 90c, guaranteeing a $1 payout by year-end. 10% in 9 months is roughly equivalent to an annualized return of 13%. Of course, the black swan scenario is Polymarket issuing a token this year, but it ends up being worth less than $5B. That would be a total disaster... No way, right? That’s not likely, right?!