qinbafrank|Mar 27, 2026 05:04
The era of on chain structured finance. Basically, under the framework of the latest clear bill, issuers of custodial stablecoins will no longer be able to provide returns. There are no longer delta neutral tokens or off chain hedge fund vaults based on centralized exchanges, nor is there a passive money making model of 'handing over funds to the issuer'. It seems that we will eventually have to walk down Defi's path
The core here is Defi's source of income
Originally, the source of DeFi's income was essentially the cost of people crazily increasing leverage during the frenzy of the cryptocurrency market (borrowing and speculation). In the future, this part will still exist, but the overall yield will decrease.
We can approximate the risk-free rate of return in the cryptocurrency market by using the loan interest rate of aave pledged pancake to borrow U or the deposit interest rate of U to deposit. If we consider the entire cryptocurrency industry as an economy, the risk-free rate of return of an economy is related to its growth rate. More than a decade ago, China's economy experienced high-speed development with loan interest rates of 8%+or even 10%+, but now that the economic growth rate has slowed down, the interest rate is only 2-3%. From this perspective, the future average interest rate of the cryptocurrency market is actually related to the overall maturity and growth rate. Looking back at the past two years, the risk-free rate of return in the cryptocurrency market has gradually decreased, partly due to maturity and partly due to market trends.
Previously, here was https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1979762001686716443? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has talked about the lack of qualified collateral and high-quality underlying assets, which has led to the stagnation of DeFi's volume. In the future, with a large number of assets being put on the chain, there will be more high-quality asset supply on the chain, and the scale of on chain lending and derivatives will expand to a huge volume, far higher than the existing volume.
The future sources of income for DeFi are:
1) Risk free rate of return (fluctuating with the market);
2) Stable coin issuers and channel partners cooperate to subsidize reserve income (previously passive income was obtained directly through exchanges or channels, which should not be possible in the future);
2) And the rate of return provided by real assets on the chain.
By combining these three elements, it should be possible to create many new forms of DeFi.
Only then will the era of on chain structured finance truly arrive.
This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'
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