TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|3月 23, 2026 11:12
Just now, gold has fallen to the limit range of 4100-4200 mentioned earlier. I also bought all the way down. After briefly touching 4100, it rebounded to around 4300 during the trading session. Now I dare not say that it has completely fallen to the bottom, but at least it has hit the bottom of the regular uptrend range. Going further requires stronger new bearish sentiment to continue smashing the market. Don't forget, before the decline at the end of January, exchanges represented by Zhishang had continuously increased margin rates, essentially deleveraging and forcing high-level leveraged bulls. Looking back, we can only say that the round of forced foam extrusion was finally successful. Now that it has fallen to the bottom of the regular starting range of 4100-4200, it means that a considerable portion of the geopolitical premium, emotional premium, and high-level leveraged floating funds that were previously accumulated in the gold price have likely been squeezed out. The most crucial thing next is to see if the selling pressure will gradually dry up. If there is a bearish trend that does not fall, and if there is a further bottoming out but no effective new low can be reached, then there is a chance for this to become a temporary bottom. Another variable worth noting in April is eSLR. This matter itself is not new news, but after its implementation, it may be repackaged by the market as a theme of "marginal easing of liquidity". If the technical repair happens to overlap, then gold may not be unable to take the opportunity to rebound. Of course, there are also two potential negative factors to be wary of in April: one is the expectation of Japan raising interest rates, and the other is the further deterioration of the situation in Iran. The former will continue to suppress global liquidity expectations, while the latter will first push up oil prices and inflation expectations, which may not immediately benefit gold. So my opinion is that this is no longer a position of chasing a sell-off, but rather entering a range of observing the decline of selling pressure and waiting for the market to reprice.
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