Talk about a turn of events: The futures-implied BASE CASE now shows the Fed pausing interest rate cuts until July 2027. To put this into perspective, the debate in late-2025 was whether the Fed would CUT rates 3 or 4 times in 2026. Last week, markets briefly showed a 50% chance of a Fed interest rate HIKE in 2026. Even as President Trump's new Fed Chair is set to begin as soon as May 2026, rate cuts are being entirely priced-out. All while one-year inflation expectations have surged to 5.0%+, now the highest since the Fed was HIKING rates. As a result, the 10Y Note Yield is now up +40 basis points since the Iran War began. The bond market can only weather the storm for so long.(The Kobeissi Letter)