The short-term supply curve intuitively reflects the current market's short-term speculative capital activity and is a true representation of on-chain liquidity. This is because whether it's the distribution of long-term or short-term holdings, short-term demand is needed to absorb them (Figure 1). Currently, the position of this curve is roughly close to the range of past bear market bottoms, indicating an extremely inactive state. It's important to note the logic here: during bear market bottoms, the supply curve will inevitably drop to its lowest point, but conversely, a drop to the lowest point doesn't necessarily mean it's an absolute bear market bottom. The exit of speculative capital makes the already scarce liquidity even tighter, causing BTC's short-term direction to become more chaotic and more sensitive to the complexities of the macro environment. At present, BTC has rebounded to $74,000 and encountered resistance again (which is also the lower limit of the rebound pressure zone we anticipated yesterday). However, from the perspective of emotional pressure, it has not yet faced the test of an extreme critical point. This situation can be directly reflected through STH-SOPR. In a rebound trend, when STH-SOPR rises to around 1, it often marks the critical point of emotional pressure, as this gives investors who recently bought in the opportunity to exit near breakeven rather than continue holding for further gains (Figure 2). For example, the rebound on 2026.1.14 ended when STH-SOPR hit 1; the rebound on 2025.10.28 also ended at 1; and the three rebounds from 2022.7.20 to 2022.10.27 followed the same pattern... Some of you might ask: So this time, when STH-SOPR returns to 1, what will BTC's corresponding price be? This is related to the average cost of STH, which is currently estimated to be around $85,000. However, as time goes on, this value is rapidly and continuously decreasing, meaning it is gradually approaching the critical point. At that point, it will either break through decisively (marking the end of the bear market) or collapse upon contact (leading to another dip).