Yishi|Mar 13, 2026 12:24
Seeing someone discussing STRC and UST together, I feel that there is a huge difference between the two.
The core risk of UST is the reflexive death spiral. After UST was unanchored, redemption pressure increased, and the system cast LUNA. The sale of LUNA brought even greater selling pressure, further exacerbating the unanchoring. This is a positive feedback loop embedded at the algorithmic level, which is almost irreversible once triggered and has no hierarchical buffering. When the spiral is reversed, everyone dies together.
The risk structure of STRC is not like this, mainly because it is hierarchical. STRC belongs to the first tier of preferred stocks in Strategy's capital structure. When BTC falls, the order of loss absorption is to first kill MSTR common stocks, which will return to zero first, then lower priority preferred ones will be damaged, followed by higher priority preferred ones, and finally bonds. The holders of STRC also have the equity cushion of MSTR common stock as a buffer.
So the key differences mainly lie in three points.
1) There is no mechanical death spiral. The decline of BTC will not automatically force Strategy to immediately sell BTC to trigger a positive feedback loop, unless it falls to an extreme level like margin call.
2) The allocation of losses has a clear waterfall, not simultaneous explosions.
3) The bottom layer is actual BTC holdings, not anchors.
The real risk scenario for STRC is the extreme decline of BTC leading to the complete penetration of equity cushion. At that time, the preferred fixed dividend will become uncertain, and the principal may also be at risk. But compared to UST's model of completing the process from anchor detachment to zero within a few days, the intensity and speed are not on the same scale.
As of March 2026, Strategy holds approximately 738731 BTC with a total cost of approximately $54.7 billion and an average price of approximately $75985. BTC bottomed out in the $66000-68000 range in early March and has recently rebounded to $71000-72000. Currently, Strategy's books are still in a floating loss state.
In terms of capital structure, the total amount of convertible bonds is about 8.2 billion US dollars, the total amount of preferred shares is about 8.36 billion US dollars, and the total fixed obligations of the two are about 16.6 billion US dollars. The total annual preferred stock dividends are approximately 824 million US dollars, with STRC accounting for the majority, with 3.4B x 11.5% equivalent to approximately 390 million US dollars per year. The company currently has a cash reserve of approximately 2.25 billion US dollars, which can roughly cover dividends and interest for 32 months.
The repayment priority from high to low is: convertible bonds, STRF, STRK, STRC, STRD, MSTR common stocks. Therefore, STRC is located slightly lower in the preferred layer.
The biggest risk in the short term from 2026 to 2027 is BTC's sideways or bearish trend in the range of 50K to 60K. This trend may not immediately make the company insolvent, but it will bring sustained pressure. In other words, MSTR's stock price is under pressure, ATM financing efficiency is declining, cash reserves are continuously depleted by dividends, and there is still $1 billion worth of convertible bonds to be processed in September 2027.
This type of chronic liquidity risk is often more likely to occur and more difficult to deal with, because it does not have a clear trigger price and is more like a gradual deterioration process. Even if it dies, it is not completely dead, you understand, that feeling.
Of course, these discussions tend to lean towards extremely adverse situations. If the BTC price rises, the long tail risk will naturally converge.
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