I've been flying around lately and don't have much time to write. I just arrived in Shanghai tonight and will watch F1 with my OKX friends tomorrow. Many people have not fully estimated the impact of the long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Let me briefly discuss it again. 1. Without a doubt, pushing up oil prices is not a dream if the blockade continues for another three months, with an oil price of 200. Don't worry about OPEC's recent increase in production, even if you can't ship out 100 million barrels per day, it's still useless. The Strait of Hormuz is only 33 kilometers narrow at its narrowest point, at a level where a single person can completely block a rocket launcher. With one person holding the barrier, there is no way to open it, let alone Iran having long-range missiles. Without completely occupying Iran's entire territory and cutting off its launch capabilities, the absolute safety of the waterway cannot be guaranteed, which will fundamentally reshape the energy landscape. If the blockade becomes prolonged, new energy pipelines and port construction will be put on the agenda. 2. The impact of rising oil prices on resource countries, producer countries and consumer countries is different. The most direct one is the United States, a consumer country. Everyone knows that the United States is a country on the wheels of cars, and its own public transport infrastructure is extremely poor. If the oil price rises from $2-3 to $5 a gallon, I'm afraid not many families will fall into the kill line, so the Trump mid-term election will be defeated. After the energy channel is blocked, the more significant impact will be on the petrodollar system. Originally, after Middle Eastern monarchies sold their oil to obtain US dollars, their families, although extremely extravagant, could only spend a small portion (even the luxury goods they consumed mostly came from American groups), and most of the money would flow back to US stocks and bonds through Middle Eastern sovereign funds. Now, this cycle has been instantly interrupted. There have even been reports of institutions such as BlackRock refusing to honor payments. Once the petrodollar cycle breaks, the original investment in American stocks, especially the line of AI stocks - chips - copper and silver bulk may cause the foam to burst due to the capital fracture, which will lead to stock disaster and economic crisis. 4. After coming to power, Ayatollah Khamenei was burdened with national hatred and family grudges, and would inevitably take super tough measures against hardliners, because he was not hardliners and could not even sit firmly in his position. He himself was only at the level of a mid-level priest, and in a theocratic country like Iran, he did not have the qualifications to succeed to the throne. However, with the support of the Revolutionary Guard, no one other than him could serve as the new supreme leader in the face of Khamenei's death to unite Iran and maximize the exchange of death. But don't forget that the compromise faction, surrendering faction, and opposition within Iran have only been temporarily suppressed. No one dares to surrender at this time, but it doesn't mean they will fully support him. He needs to achieve some actual results to sit firm, which means the strait blockade may not be too short. 5. The rise in oil prices will increase the costs of producing countries. Oil is not only a fuel, but heavy oil is also an important chemical raw material. The rise in oil prices will also lead to an increase in fertilizer prices, which will then be transmitted to the agricultural sector. At that time, both grain and meat prices will follow suit, and household consumption and prices will soar. 6. Recently, there have been many voices online claiming that China's dependence on the Taiwan Strait is greater, which is actually incorrect. Firstly, Iranians will not restrict their oil exports, as they have been sanctioned for many years and their oil can only be sold to Dongda. Although China's two-way trade does account for the majority of the strait's transportation volume, isn't it common sense that China is not in a hurry and the United States is in a hurry? At the end of the day, the difference between a producing country, a consuming country, an industrialized country, and a financial country is just a joke. Although China is physically dependent on the strait, the oil from countries such as Maozi, Langzi, and Venezuela, which have been sanctioned by the United States, could only be sold to China. China is like a huge NPC, only responsible for receiving, selling, and processing products, with long blood bars, high attack and high defense, and not participating in disputes. If the strait continues to be blocked, the United States and its allies will suffer the most. Although China will also be injured, it is completely controllable under the pattern of wind power, hydropower, nuclear energy and solar energy that has been laid out for a long time, and can even continue to promote the development of new industries. 7. It is obvious that in this conflict where Trump impulsively left, the United States was caught in a dilemma. If we continue to fight for a long time, it will lead to the rapid collapse of hegemony, and the world is not yet prepared emotionally or practically to take over hegemony. So the most likely scenario is a slow decline with the efforts of all parties. It is impossible for the United States to accept the war reparations conditions proposed by the United States. At the end of this month, Trump's visit to China may be the best opportunity to step down. After all, only China has the strength and face to mediate. After all, neither Trump nor Netanyahu can borrow a power bank. If the incident can be resolved before mid April, then a one month blockade of the strait is just the limit that all parties can accept. The United States may make some limited compromises under this pressure, offering some benefits in the strait or reducing the level of sanctions in exchange for security commitments. 8. If Trump insists on going ahead, the world will change faster than we think. If Netanyahu doesn't want to be eliminated, he should also loosen his grip on the ceasefire, although this ceasefire is more like replenishing ammunition during halftime. During this negotiation process, Iran launched a surprise attack and killed its top leader. Standing on the moral high ground, it is necessary to find a way back. The new leader is already known for being tough, and without some convincing results internally, it is difficult to reorganize the already fragmented, warlordized, and divided internal regime. If he cannot integrate all parties, local leaders will continue to harass the strait, and the goal of peace cannot be achieved. 10. No matter how Trump talks about winning, there is only one final criterion for winning this time, that is, whether the strait can pass safely again. Whoever can do this will really win the final initiative control. 11. We promise not to use causal weapons first...