Let's talk about the recent changes in the overall market and the logic of the "Spring Robbery Market". In fact, over a month ago, we talked about the "Spring Robbery Market", and in the past few weeks, we have been talking about it almost every week and it is still ongoing. However, the driving logic of the overall market has also undergone several changes: 1) At the beginning of February, there was a chat here https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2019449508225288877? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A At that time, the logic was industry first, followed by macro. In the industry, there are concerns about significantly increased capital expenditures while deleveraging. Macroscopically, Woshen has been nominated as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the market is concerned about his hawkish remarks; 2) In late February, this logic is https://(((x.com))/qinbank/status/2026120824412115332? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has evolved into a balance between industry and macro: concerns about capital expenditures continue, and there is also a strengthening of AI disruption and substitution; At the same time, the uncertainty brought about by the macro tariff ruling, the escalating situation in Iran, and the impending storm, coupled with Blue Owl's private credit fund ceasing redemptions, are driving the situation together; 3) And entering the March spring market, it has become a macro driven trend. The situation in Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, stagflation risks, and emotional shocks from private lending. Returning to the present, or was it a week ago with https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2030224892176548176? As discussed in s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, the current market focus is on the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping in the strait does not return to normal, oil prices will continue to rise, putting pressure on all risk assets. The situation has become even more severe after the death of Khamenei. The conflict has indeed escalated over the past 9 days. Let's talk about our views on the current macro driving logic mainlines: 1. Regarding the situation in Iran There is no doubt that there has not been any sign of easing or cooling down yet, and Iran's new supreme leader has also been elected to continue to be strong. The attacks from both sides have spread from simple military strikes to attacking each other's oil fields, refineries, and desalination plants. The Strait of Hormuz is essentially still suspended, which is actually an economic war. The purpose of the economic war between the United States and Israel is to strike Iran's oil facilities, which are Iran's most important and core source of economic income. From striking military facilities, striking weapon inventories to striking lifelines; The purpose of Iran's economic war is to drag all Middle Eastern countries related to the United States into the water, increasing everyone's war pain. On the one hand, it is to retaliate, and on the other hand, it is to force Middle Eastern countries to put pressure on the United States. Also, Trump was forced by the sharp rise of oil prices and the rebound of inflation. Every time the oil price rose a little, the affordability he had advocated was a step further away from the public. From a personal perspective, both sides have their own limits that they cannot bear, and it cannot be said that the current situation will continue indefinitely. We cannot accurately deduce this time point, we can only wait and observe. 2. Stagflation risk In fact, it is the negative effect of the rise in oil prices. The morning's non farm payroll data fell significantly short of expectations. Putting it in the previous "bad news is good news" scenario is now a stagflation scenario of "inflation rising and the economy slowing down significantly". But the essence still depends on the situation in Iran. If there is a easing in the future and the market's response to the significantly lower non farm payroll data changes, it will be called an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts; The ongoing conflict and the closure of the strait keep the risk of stagflation looming. In this regard, the February US CPI data released this week has become less important. The February CPI is past data, and the market is more concerned about what the March CPI will be like when the war breaks out. 3. Private Credit Last week, BlackRock Private Credit Fund restricted redemptions. Yesterday, here's https://(((x.com))/qinbank/status/203044750256599325? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, I have a chat about it. In my personal opinion, the current problem with private equity credit is that investors panic and compete to redeem. However, private equity credit funds are not like stock funds, as credit assets need time to be fully recovered (stocks are sold at will). If you take a closer look at the detailed data of BlackRock HLEND Fund, it is not clear that its underlying assets have already encountered major problems. I personally believe that private credit is not the true source of risk in the current market, but rather an emotional risk that affects investors' mentality. The follow-up still depends on the trend of the situation, two scenarios 1) If the situation eases within March and the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, there is a high possibility that risk assets will bottom out in March. The positions that were significantly reduced due to the 'spring market crash' can also be added back. 2) Upgrading the situation, the conflict will continue and expand, and it will not stop until March, and may even last longer. So risk assets continue to be tightly suppressed, and it is estimated that every East Asian stock market will be spared. Energy and military industries continue to benefit. When we first talked about the "spring market crash" in early February, we mentioned that we expected the US stock market to experience a small to medium level adjustment. As of the latest update, the Nasdaq futures have adjusted by -8.5% and the S&P by -6.2%, and now it can almost be said that this is a mid-level adjustment. If you are familiar with my tweets, you can refer to my previous personal definition of the large, medium, and small levels of adjustment in the US stock market. These are all current simulations, or are we waiting for a clear turning point signal in the development of the situation. In the next few days, people will see various comments about the "big budget of the financial system", and think of the various comments about the trade war in March and April last year, such as "70 years of inflation is back", "the arrival of the Great Depression in 1929", and "the complete collapse of the so-called safety asset foundation". Is this the same perception. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'