On March 6th, Jin Shi Data reported that a week ago, anyone betting on the European Central Bank's interest rate hike appeared isolated and paranoid; Nowadays, as the Iran war threatens inflation trends, this transaction has become a market consensus. According to money market data, the possibility of the European Central Bank raising interest rates this year has reached 100%, which is a dramatic reversal from the situation a week ago where the probability of interest rate cuts was higher than that of interest rate hikes. This shift is pushing German treasury bond towards the worst week in three years. The yield of interest rate sensitive two-year German bonds has soared 30 basis points to 2.30% since the close of last Friday. The expected speed of transformation is reflected in the US and even global markets. In the United States, options traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will abandon any interest rate cut plans this year. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has surged by over 20 basis points to 4.16%, and similar bond yields in Australia, Canada, and the UK have also seen similar increases. Lucile Flight, Managing Director of Interest Rate Trading at Barclays Bank, said, "The sole responsibility of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability. In my opinion, they will not hesitate to respond to energy price shocks