[Middle East Conflict Drives Up Energy Price Expectations, Bank of England May Resume Rate Hikes Above 4%] Jin10 News, March 4 – The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) stated that if the surge in energy prices caused by military actions in the Middle East persists, the Bank of England may be forced to raise its benchmark interest rate back above 4%. NIESR's analysis shows that if crude oil prices remain at $100 per barrel throughout the year and natural gas prices rise by another 50%, it will push up the UK's inflation rate in 2026 by 0.7 percentage points and suppress output growth by 0.2%. The institution pointed out that this would trigger a tighter monetary policy response, with interest rates expected to be about 0.8 percentage points higher than the baseline scenario this year. Currently, the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate stands at 3.75%. The analysis also mentioned that if the energy price shock is relatively short-lived, the inflation rate will rise by approximately 0.3 percentage points, in which case the Bank of England may be able to overlook its impact.