Yesterday I was a bit busy and didn't bother to write about it. The market showed a counterintuitive trend, with oil rising, gold and silver falling, the US dollar index falling, the stock market falling, and Bitcoin's uncertain upward or downward trend. Firstly, an increase in crude oil prices is the most normal, as the Strait of Hormuz is closed and countries along the route have nowhere to store the refined oil, which will gradually reduce production capacity. Based on the comprehensive data of storage capacity, production capacity decline period, and production capacity recovery period, it is difficult for oil prices to fall back within two months. Based on the trend of oil prices, we basically don't need to worry about the size of the non farm payroll data released this week, after all, in the face of war, the weight of previous employment data has been greatly weakened. Just pay more attention to CPI/PCE data in about a month or two. The most frustrating thing for everyone is probably that gold and silver have fallen, because intuitively speaking, the escalation of the Iran conflict should lead to an increase. But in fact, 5200 has always been considered a pressure level, and it is precisely because of the news of war that it has risen to around 5400. The decline of gold and silver should be viewed in conjunction with the rise of the US dollar index. When the war first broke out, the risk aversion drove the price up. This belongs to the first stage of knee jerk reaction. But a few days after the outbreak of the war, the panic gradually replaced the new expectation of maintaining high interest rates due to inflation caused by oil, and entered the second stage of stagflation trading. The market is concerned that soaring energy costs will lead to uncontrolled inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish. The high interest rate environment is bearish for "interest free assets" such as gold, which has led to a decline. As the war spreads to Middle Eastern countries collectively and the fiat currency system (especially the local currencies of Middle Eastern countries) faces extreme uncertainty, Bitcoin, as an asset that does not rely on any sovereign credit and has low cross-border circulation costs, may once again be regarded as "digital gold" by some institutions and individuals. I mentioned it the night before yesterday when gold and silver began to decline, https://(x.com)/Trader_S18/status/2028504442375684161? S=20 Gold and silver are already strong correlated and negatively correlated hedging targets with the big cake trend. From yesterday when gold, silver, and US stocks collectively fell while Bitcoin did not follow suit, there was a hint of abnormality. Funds may switch tracks when gold experiences stagflation due to liquidity demand or US dollar pressure, and some high elasticity seeking safe haven funds may choose Bitcoin. In addition, if the risk of the global financial settlement system being impacted by war increases, the underlying anti blocking characteristics of Bitcoin will become prominent. At this moment, the big pie has already started to rebound. I don't know if this wave will be like around March 3rd, 2025, when the US stock market had already started to decline due to the tariff war and Bitcoin was rebounding, giving people a sense of resilience and safe haven. But at that time, everyone wasn't happy for long, and later on, everyone knew about the 4.7 incident... So combined with M @ The data from Murphychen888 may follow a strategy of first rising and then falling, leading people to think that the big pie will be caught off guard after being able to withstand the downturn and avoid risks. However, this time, the bottom may not be far away after the kill. I went short for the whole day after Pingduo the night before last. First, last night when my hand itched, I made a small surplus and took it for a while before running away. Then, I made three short runs around 688. After discovering that the bottom is rising higher and higher without moving, it turns more and more. This wave seems to have spread to the 72-74 area.