Macro Briefing 2026-03-04: Let's take a look at the three main lines first The Middle East conflict is difficult to ease in the short term, and the market is pricing based on "lasting for several weeks" rather than "short-term impact". 2. Deepening energy shock: With the sharp rise in oil prices, the trading logic has shifted from hedging to "supply/transportation risks+input inflation". 3. Cross asset transition to the re inflation framework: US dollar strengthens, US bond yields rise, global stock market differentiation (weaker in Europe, relatively resilient in the US). ─── Key market facts Crude oil: WTI closed up by about+6.28%, while Brent crude rose by+6.68%. European natural gas: sharply rising during the trading session, with significant dual pressures of "growth+inflation" in Europe. Foreign exchange: The US dollar index is strengthening, while the euro and yen are under pressure, reflecting the pricing of "energy import exposure differences". US Treasury: 2Y/10Y/30Y yields rise synchronously, indicating that "safe haven bond buying" has given way to "inflation trading". Expectation of interest rate cuts: The market has further shifted the expectation of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to a later window (near September). Stock market structure: European stocks are significantly weaker than US stocks; VIX rose and then fell back, but still remains in the high range. • Policy supplement: BOJ continues to release the statement 'if the outlook is fulfilled, interest rates can continue to rise'; Eurozone inflation flash report rebounded to 1.9% in February; The Reserve Bank of Australia has a hawkish stance. ─── A brief reminder for today's market trend • Asian session: Focus on the impact of oil price headlines on the Japanese yen and currencies of importing economies. European session: The combination of "inflation rebound+gas price shock" in the Eurozone may lead to a continued rise in risk premium. During the US stock market period: If oil prices remain high, US bond yields and expectations of a "rate cut shift" will still suppress valuation elasticity.