[Wintermute: If the conflict lasts longer than initially expected, it will broadly suppress risk assets] Foresight News reports that in a world where growth risk premiums are rising and the Federal Reserve is unable to act, cryptocurrencies, as the highest beta growth assets, continue to face pressure. The ongoing outflow of ETF funds (now temporarily paused) confirms this. This is the short-term reality. In more recent memory, growth scares have triggered asset rotations, but as risk appetite recovered, these rotations eventually reversed. What’s different now is that the headwinds are structural: the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, deglobalization, and now the potential for sustained energy supply disruptions. These factors reinforce each other. If oil prices remain high and the Federal Reserve stays on hold, the rotation of funds into hard assets, commodities, and value assets will likely continue. In this scenario, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to find buying support. That said, there is a scenario that could accelerate the hard asset narrative in favor of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, as digital gold, has never fully realized this promise, but if the conflict persists and traditional safe-haven assets become crowded, some funds may seek alternatives. We are not there yet, and fund flows do not support this, but it is worth monitoring. For now, caution is paramount. The primary focus should be on headlines related to the conflict, particularly any progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or reducing hostilities. If the conflict lasts longer than initially expected, elevated energy costs could reshape interest rate expectations and broadly suppress risk assets.