In depth analysis of the top player in the cryptocurrency industry: I conclude based on the price of Bitcoin and the global M2 growth rate that Bitcoin will not experience a deep bear like in 2014, 2018, and 2021! My reasons are as follows, I hope everyone can discuss together: From the graph, it can be seen that the global M2 growth rate is increasing, and there is a high probability that BTC prices will rise; M2 growth rate decreases → BTC price is likely to decline. We have discovered an important phenomenon that if Bitcoin experiences a deep bear like in 2014, 2018, and 2021, it will inevitably mean that the global M2 growth rate will gradually decline from the current 10% to% or even -3.5% within 2 years. However, I am confident that there will not be a significant decline in M2 growth rate to near negative values similar to the 2014/2018/2021 trend in the next two years. The reasons are as follows. 1. Let's first review the background of the "significant decline" in history 2014-15: The Federal Reserve ended the fermentation of QE and the European debt crisis, global liquidity voluntarily contracted, and M2 growth rate fell from 9%+to -3.9%. In 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced its balance sheet, the European Central Bank ended QE, and the world tightened synchronously. M2 growth rate fell from 13%+to around 0%. 2021: After the pandemic, fiscal and monetary stimulus peaked, followed by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet (I vaguely remember that Japan also raised interest rates in 2021), causing M2 growth to plummet from 20%+to -3.8%. These times have all been the result of synchronized and aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks around the world, accompanied by clear expectations of economic recession or crisis. Why do I think there won't be a repeat of M2 growth rate in the next 2 years? Why won't it fall from the current 10% to 0%? Let's take a look at the macro fundamentals of global central banks 1. The Federal Reserve: It plans to cut interest rates only once or twice in 2026, and will not restart large-scale scale reduction. The goal is "soft landing" rather than actively piercing the foam. 2. The European Central Bank: The pace and intensity of interest rate cuts are lagging behind, and the core concern is inflation stickiness, which will not tighten as quickly as in 2018. 3. The People's Bank of China: Adhering to "moderate easing", the M2 growth target has fallen from 9% to 7% -8%, which is a gradual adjustment rather than a sudden brake. 4. The global GDP growth rate from 2026 to 2027 is only 3.2% -3.3%, far lower than pre pandemic levels. The central bank needs to maintain moderate liquidity to support employment and growth, and not let M2 growth rate fall close to zero. The economic recovery is fragile and requires liquidity to support it. In 2026, it will fall from the current 10% to 6% -8%, mainly due to the slowdown of China's M2 growth rate and the maintenance of neutral policies in developed economies. In 2027, it will further decline to 4% -6% and gradually approach the global nominal GDP growth rate (about 4% -5%). My opinion on Bitcoin: I predict that there will not be deep bears like those in 2014, 2018, and 2021 throughout the entire period of 2016-2017. Since the M2 growth rate will still remain above the 4% growth rate of 2023, Bitcoin will continue its "structural bull market" since 2023.