The divergence between energy and gold trends is quite interesting today, with oil and gas continuing to rise while gold begins to decline. Why does the energy sector perform better than precious metals? The core is still the direct threat of geopolitical situation to the supply chain, and the sensitivity of inventory is fluctuating. Last night, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps clearly stated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned that it will fire on any ships attempting to pass through, which is Iran's strongest statement since last Saturday. Once the energy transportation path is disrupted, the expected supply of natural gas and crude oil will immediately tighten, and the price elasticity will be much higher than that of metal assets. Although European natural gas inventories are in a relatively safe zone, the expected cost of replenishing them in the long term has rapidly increased, and the rush of funds has pushed up the futures price. Energy belongs to the category of "physical supply risk pricing", while precious metals are more inclined towards "financial risk pricing", and the reaction rhythm of the two in the conflict persistence regulations is actually different. Overall, if the market believes that conflict risks are manageable and will not escalate into a major war, then the safe haven nature of precious metals will diminish. The asymmetry caused by the unique geographical factors of the Strait of Hormuz (with a narrowest point of over 30 kilometers): 1) Blockade can be achieved without too high cost, using large caliber artillery, rocket launchers, and deployed mines; 2) Even without actual physical blockade, as long as ship owners and insurance companies believe that crossing the strait is a high-risk behavior (oil tanker damage, insurance companies not underwriting), it can lead to substantial suspension of operations. So a substantial shutdown can lead to an increase in energy consumption, strengthen inflation expectations, re price the interest rate path in the market, push up real yields, and thus suppress gold. Gold is extremely sensitive to real interest rates. So it is a diversion of the safe haven path, where funds prioritize pricing energy supply risks over systemic financial risks.