The 'Roaring Lion' operation has already begun against Iran by the United States and Israel. What should we do next? At the end of last night's tweet, it was mentioned that 'from a strategic timing perspective, there does seem to be a' window period 'at this moment.'. Iran's regional proxy network has been weakened in multiple rounds of conflicts with Israel, and the long-term backlog of economic sanctions has led to several outbreaks of internal pressure. Domestic social dissatisfaction has not completely dissipated. For a politician who is good at seizing the "window", such moments naturally have temptation. Especially when Trump was frustrated in domestic affairs, it was easy to turn to foreign affairs to make up for it. From this perspective, the probability is increasing. ”Now that we have started to take action, we need to see what happens next? 1. According to the information disclosed by Israeli officials, today's main focus is on striking Iran's high-ranking officials and missile airports, including the residence of Ayatollah Khamenei and the President. The core refers directly to the decapitation operation and the paralysis of military forces. However, it seems that Khamenei is not in Tehran and the assassination attempt on the Iranian president was also unsuccessful. It was chosen in the early morning of Saturday, US Eastern Time. It is not difficult to understand that the reduction of weekend time action will impact the financial market (unfortunately, the missile hit the currency market). At the same time, it also gave Trump time to appease the market. Previously, it was discussed here at https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/202433975867203977 that "in the future, if we take action, combat operations may last for several days to weeks. The targets may cover multiple levels - from targeted attacks on weapons facilities and mid-level officials to 'decapitation operations' that may overthrow the existing regime. The primary goal is to destroy Iran's missiles, launchers, drones, and drone factories to prevent retaliatory strikes against the US military and Israel." Today, the actions of the US and Israel are indeed like this, 2. However, the bombing and assassination attempts on Iran's top leader and president were unsuccessful, so it is highly likely that Iran will launch a wave of retaliation. As long as the top leader and president are still present, the leadership system can still be maintained. As we have discussed before, Iran quickly resumed missile production capacity after June last year, and missile inventory has rebounded to the level before June last year. At the same time, there are still 2-300 missiles produced per month. Although Iran's missile bases and fixed launch pits are easily attacked, Iran still has a large number of missile launch vehicles moving around, which gives Iran the confidence to retaliate. Later today, it is estimated that Iran's first retaliatory action will be to launch missiles at various facilities in Israel. Meanwhile, the second wave of attacks by the United States and Israel may begin again later. 3. What is the intention of the United States? As Republican Senate leader Thune said a few days ago, if the United States takes action against Iran, the goal is to change the regime. But the question is, is there a high probability of changing Iran correctly? Actually, it's not big. If today's action fails to kill Khamenei and President Zahid Ziyang (who still belongs to the pro American faction), it will be even more difficult to deal with these two in the future. Because Iran has a large inland depth, unlike the Venezuelan capital Caracas, which is only a dozen kilometers away from the Caribbean coast, helicopters can quickly attack. Tehran is several hundred kilometers away from the sea, making it very difficult for special forces to launch a surprise attack. At the same time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard also has strength, and it is difficult for the United States and Israel to launch large-scale ground attacks, making it easy to get stuck in a quagmire. This is what Trump doesn't want to see. The most likely scenario is to take advantage of the situation to incite riots and violent discussions within Iran, stirring up opposition forces to cause trouble and creating opportunities for further actions by the US and Israel. If the regime cannot be replaced, Trump would prefer to permanently disable Iran's nuclear capability and missile capability (Israel would like to see that the United States may also accept the proposal to limit Iran's missile range). 4. From this perspective, today's action still prioritizes deterrence, forcing Iran to pick up the terms rejected at the Geneva talks and negotiate again. Of course, the best scenario is to renegotiate after the two sides fight each other. Iran sees Trump's determination and makes huge concessions in exchange for short-term peace. Of course, the pessimistic scenario is that Iran will not compromise, and Trump cannot explain to the domestic. The grand fanfare yielded no results, and the reputation plummeted. So we can only continue to fight each other, and the tug of war begins. This is the most difficult thing for the market. 5. The next focus of observation is: 1) After a round of fighting, did the two sides reveal a signal of renegotiation? 2) If Iran does not back down, a tug of war will begin. Is there any sign of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz (the key waterway in the strait is very narrow and can be blocked with long-range artillery)? Of course, we are still far from the 'Hormuz blockade' because it is Iran's last resort and will not be easily used. After all, it will also cause significant economic damage to oneself. If there is a signal of renegotiation, the market will naturally breathe a sigh of relief. Otherwise, there is a high probability that the market will open in panic on Monday. The impact on the market lies in the fact that if there is one or two short-term brawls, they will quickly come to the negotiating table, causing panic in the market. However, this impact is often short-term and one-time. The market will quickly interpret various pessimistic expectations. Once it is confirmed that negotiations and mediation are still possible, the market will return to its original driving logic. But if it is a long-term tug of war, the biggest impact is that oil prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. Meanwhile, uncertainty continues to increase. Especially now, the US stock market itself has not yet emerged from the 'spring market crash'.