The situation in the Middle East has entered the peak period of the "cowardly game"! The military deployment of the US amphibious strike group "Tripoli" with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Force and F-35B+armed helicopters has been completed. The other "Boxer" carrying the 11th Marine Corps is on its way to the Middle East and has not yet arrived. You should know that the "Tripoli" is a special amphibious assault ship that abandoned the traditional landing craft cabin in its design and instead enlarged its hangar. It is a "Lightning Carrier" specifically designed for F-35B vertical takeoff and landing fighter jets. The tactical characteristics of the 82nd Airborne Division are adept at seizing bridgeheads, targeting core facilities, and high mobility. This indicates that the US military is completing a posture transition from "remote surgery" to "close combat control". It can be said that it has the ability to seize and control critical infrastructure within a few hours. For example, the oil and gas terminal on Hark Island, the missile position on Geshm Island, or the deep-water port that supports the arrival of subsequent heavy troops. And Hark Island carries about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Once it is controlled by the US military, Iran will completely lose its economic source. In this situation of animal struggle, Iran is highly likely to implement a scorched earth policy - if you don't let me sell oil, then no one can sell it. Hark Island has an area of only about 20 square kilometers and is less than 40 kilometers away from the Iranian coastline. This distance is completely within the absolute range of Iran's large number of long-range rockets, drones, and shore based missiles. To protect thousands of paratroopers on the island, the US military must deploy expensive prevention and control systems such as Patriot-3 or THAAD. Iran only needs to continuously launch cheap drones or "Fateh" hypersonic missiles to continuously deplete the US military's interception missiles. Isn't this becoming a live target? Why do you still show a desire to seize the island despite knowing the risks involved? I think there may be two strategic considerations here: 1. The US believes that direct strait escort is extremely inefficient and is not as effective as physical control of Halk Island. Although facing attacks, it has taken away Iran's most crucial bargaining chip. The US military may use its powerful defense system to withstand the first wave of impact, betting that Iran cannot sustain a long-term war of attrition after losing oil revenue. 2. Extreme ground warfare threat. Clearly tell Iran that I am no longer just conducting airstrikes, I have the ability to end your regime's revenue within 48 hours. It is to force the other party to immediately consider returning to the negotiating table. But in the face of the above risks, I personally think that the US military will not occupy Halk Island for a long time, but will use lightning to destroy it before withdrawing or establishing a neutral isolation zone. If Iran really attacks oil facilities in other Middle East regions, leading to a sharp drop in US stocks, Trump's next move is likely to be the release of large-scale strategic oil reserves+expanding the scope of attack. For example, if you attack Saudi oil fields, I will attack your power plants and refineries. Anyway, this conflict has so far exceeded everyone's expectations before it started. ”The coward game "depends on who blinks first I definitely hope not to fight anymore. Because whoever hits first must hit my wallet first.