I suddenly realized that this arbitrage may not be valid, so I posted it to discuss with everyone. @ Leozayaat can also correct it, so that everyone won't be taken into the pit by me The reason is that I observed today that the Polymarket No Token Launch pool on 42 has increased from over 1000 units that I tweeted yesterday to 4000 units, and the odds have also dropped to 1:10 The latecomers of the Bonding Curve will pay a higher price than the newcomers, but at the same time, they will also occupy a larger share in the same pool We assume that in a few months, Polymarket suggests that it may not be possible to issue coins before the end of the year. At this point, there is a 63% probability that Opinion will first fall, such as 30%. Then, some other pool holders who guess 5B, 10B, and 20A will sell, and more funds will flow into the "No Token Launch" pool, from the current 4000U to 20000U, while other pools will correspondingly reduce their funds by 20000-30000 U In this case, yesterday you charged 500U, and the percentage of the pool you previously occupied (which should have been around 1500U at the time) was around 25 (500/2000). At 20000U, the percentage may have dropped by 10% or even lower (500U is estimated to be sold immediately along the curve to around 2000U)? Uncertain formula In this case, if 42 and Opinion are sold at the same time, 42 will earn 1500U, and Opinion will lose 5000U in half, which may result in a loss of 1000U in the end If you don't sell, by the end of the year, if you really haven't issued any coins, the situation doesn't seem very optimistic. Firstly, the Opinion is definitely -5000, but on the 42 side, because the No Token Launch pool has become much larger, the TVL of other pools has decreased accordingly. Therefore, your 500U essentially cannot maintain the 1:18 odds when you entered. At that time, you may settle 500U and only have 4000-5000U? To put it simply, those who fall behind in the pool spend more money, take on greater risks, and occupy a larger share. As a result, your 'compensation equity' is diluted, and the odds at the time of your purchase cannot be guaranteed. But the advantage is that you can pour money into newcomers in advance and leave with the money - why is it so like a primary market investment? Angel ->Seed ->Series A ->Series B ->OTC ->IPO/TGE... Investors from the previous round can exit early at a low multiple without waiting for TGE So even from a purely arbitrage perspective, this pool should still be a dynamic game process from top to bottom, but my static one-year arbitrage space and results yesterday are probably not valid. @What do you think of Leozayaat?