The last ten day window after the negotiations between the United States and Geneva? Yesterday, the United States and Iran did not reach an agreement after talks in Geneva, and Trump only gave a window of 10 to 15 days. There is no clear 'ultimatum', but there is a clear psychological expectation - if negotiations cannot be reached, the options will not only remain at the diplomatic level. In the afternoon, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran temporarily, and then the US Embassy in Israel began an emergency evacuation. In an email, the US Ambassador to Israel urged those who wish to leave to take immediate action "today". He warned that the demand for flights at Ben Gurion Airport could be very high, emphasizing the importance of leaving Israel as soon as possible. These actions by the two major countries immediately triggered the panic in the market at night. Let's talk about the content of the Geneva negotiations: 1. During the negotiations, US negotiator Steve Witkov and Kushner proposed a clear and firm condition: to cancel the "sunset clause" and demand that the nuclear agreement remain in effect indefinitely; Stop uranium enrichment and transfer high enrichment stocks; Include ballistic missiles and regional behavior in the restrictive framework. The logic of the United States is that if Iran abandons its nuclear weapons path, it must 'permanently abandon' it. 2. Iran's actions: Iranian Foreign Minister Aragorzi submitted a "detailed proposal" expressing willingness to demonstrate "unprecedented openness" on verification issues. There are even rumors that Iran is tentatively opening up the possibility of oil investment to American companies in exchange for economic benefits and easing sanctions. 3. The negotiations have actually made some progress: Iran reiterated that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons and emphasized that it has limited the missile range to 2000 kilometers. The US has fine tuned its previous absolute stance of "zero enrichment" and started discussing how to dispose of existing enriched uranium inventories. This technical concession means that both sides are looking for a middle ground. 4. But the core key points are as follows: https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2024339758627203977? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A is talking about shifting from the nuclear issue to the missile issue. The nuclear issue is Iran's future capability, while the missile issue is Iran's existing security capability. The nuclear issue is a technical issue, while the missile issue is a strategic issue. Because from the current perspective, the missile issue is the fundamental concern for Iran's safety and survival. Trump's intention is to conduct diplomacy and deter at the same time. By using deterrence to force diplomatic achievements, Trump recently stated that although he did not give a formal "deadline", he made it clear that 10 to 15 days should be enough to reach an agreement - otherwise, the United States might take military action. However, it should be noted that Trump and Rubio's statements to Iran this week clearly began to exaggerate the threat of Iran. Trump said in the Congress: "They (Iran) have the ability to threaten Europe and our overseas bases, and are developing missiles that can hit the US mainland soon." Rubio also said that Iran's missile range "is growing exponentially every year", and may even cover the US mainland in the future. In the past, especially before the Iraq War, the United States would vigorously exaggerate the threat of its opponents. Although it is reasonable not to engage in a major conflict during this year's midterm elections, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and the Persian Gulf crude oil transportation line is cut off, it is not what the American people want to see. But from a strategic timing perspective, there does seem to be a 'window period' at this moment. Iran's regional proxy network has been weakened in multiple rounds of conflicts with Israel, and the long-term backlog of economic sanctions has led to several outbreaks of internal pressure. Domestic social dissatisfaction has not completely dissipated. For a politician who is good at seizing the "window", such moments naturally have temptation. Especially during times of domestic setbacks, it is easy to turn to foreign affairs to make up for it. From this perspective, the probability is increasing. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'