10 o'clock smash: How Jane Street suppresses Bitcoin prices Bitcoin should be at least $150000 now A federal lawsuit filed in Manhattan Explained why it didn't reach that location The whole thing can be broken down into three lines An insider trading lawsuit surrounding the private chat group Bryce's Secret A programmatic selling model starting at 10am Eastern Time in late 2024 and running through 2025 And a 13F document that disclosed a huge ETF position but did not disclose derivative hedging Three clues all point to the same name Jane Street Capital Terraform and May 7th, 2022 Bryce Pratt interned at Terraform Labs Joined Jane Street in September 2021 May 7, 2022 Terraform withdraws 150 million USTs from Curve 3pool About 10 minutes later A wallet related to Jane Street withdrew 85 million USTs from the same pool Within a few days UST detachment from anchor Luna enters the death spiral About $40 billion market value evaporated Lawsuit claims Jane Street reduced its holdings hours before the collapse of the ecosystem Avoiding risk exposure exceeding $200 million Jane Street denies allegations Under the same background There is also a $4 billion lawsuit against Jump Trading 2/10am decline pattern Starting from the end of 2024 And intensify in 2025 Almost every trading day Near 10am Eastern Time Bitcoin will experience a rapid decline For example, on a certain day in December The price dropped from $89700 to $87700 in just a few minutes Approximately $171 million of long positions have been liquidated This behavior persists for several months After the Terraform lawsuit was made public This mode stopped for a while Subsequently, it will resume in Q3 2025 Frequent occurrence again in December Disclosure of 13F in Q4 2025 Jane Street disclosed in Q4 13F of 2025 Holding 20315780 shares of IBIT Worth approximately 790 million US dollars 7105206 new shares were added in this quarter Increased holdings of approximately 276 million US dollars The previous year Its IBIT position once approached $2.5 billion simultaneously Its MSTR holdings increased by 473% Reached 951187 shares Approximately 121 million US dollars Jane Street is one of the four authorized participants of IBIT The other three are Virtu Americas JP Morgan Securities Marex Blind spot of 4/13F 13F discloses long positions in stocks Non disclosure of options futures swap When the file shows a $790 million IBIT position Unable to see if there are equivalent put options or short futures If there is a short hedge of $790 million Net exposure is 0 If the scale of derivatives exceeds 790 million US dollars Net exposure may be negative External cannot know 5/Structural Logic If an organization Simultaneously possessing ETF redemption authorization Scale of derivatives Inventory scheduling capability So in the 10am liquidity switching window Centralized selling Trigger liquidation Subsequently, it will be replenished in a lower price range Profit in the derivative layer form a closed loop 6/Regulatory precedents 2025 Indian regulatory agency SEBI releases 105 page enforcement document Accused Jane Street of manipulating the BANKNIFTY index options market The report states that Profit of 3650.2 billion rupees within two years Daily profit of 73.5 billion rupees Approximately 4.3 billion US dollars in scale 7/21000000 and synthetic supply The upper limit of Bitcoin is 21000000 coins This is a protocol layer constraint But derivatives can create unlimited price exposure When the contract size of the financial layer is much larger than the circulation scale on the chain Price discovery may come more from the derivatives market The problem ultimately turned into a numerical issue What is Jane Street's true net Bitcoin exposure Under the current disclosure framework This number is not publicly available And the few minutes at 10am every day Becoming the most intuitive signal outside of all numbers