Today, I will introduce data that can provide clearer evidence for the argument I mentioned on the 12th: “If we are using fear data as an opportunity, can there really be true fear in the market?” In Korea, futures trading is structurally restricted. Therefore, Korean investors move their funds to overseas futures exchanges to trade with leverage. 1. "image 1" shows the amount of funds moved to futures exchanges by relatively small investors, those with assets under $100,000. I interpret this data as a retail leverage liquidity indicator. 2. I believe retail investors cannot easily use leverage unless they have strong conviction or confidence in the market. In the past, when confidence was at its peak, leverage liquidity surged. Coincidentally, that period was also the cycle top. (See Image 1.) 3. The key point today is the orange box area. During this recent price shock, retail investors deposited leverage funds into futures exchanges at levels close to the previous peak. If retail investors were in real fear, I believe this kind of behavior would be unlikely. Looking at the data, it seems that certain ideas are influencing their decisions, such as: - “The Fear & Greed Index is at historic lows,” - “Remember Warren Buffett’s famous quote,” - “SOPR has fallen well below 1,” and similar arguments. 4. In the past, when these indicators dropped sharply, the market later formed a bottom. Because of that experience, I believe two psychological reactions are happening at the same time: - “I missed the exit at $100K; I must use leverage now to recover my losses and get back to even.” - “This must be close to the bottom. Buying spot is not enough. I should use leverage to maximize profits.” 5.The data may show “fear,” but the real psychology could be different. If there were true fear, this kind of atmosphere would not form so easily. How can people confidently shout “buy” during real fear? If it were that easy, everyone would already be rich. When Bitcoin was above $100K, many talked about rate cuts and the “banana zone.” But did the market actually move that way? Markets do not always move as the majority expects. 6. This data also showed a similar psychological pattern at the 2021 cycle top. (See Image 2.) In my view, real fear has not yet entered the market. I believe we are still in the early stage. At the very least, for sentiment to clearly move into a true “doubt” phase, we would need to see something like the yellow box area shown in Image 2.(mignolet)