After the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff was illegal yesterday, both US stocks, gold and silver, and even the Big Pie Ether copycat are rising. Although it may be absurd to say that a one-day increase has turned the tide, the tariff war, a change in the global T0 level narrative, will indeed trigger countless changes in subsequent events. 1. The tariff war is not over. The Supreme Court's decision is just to balance Trump's rights and try to consolidate (or at least superficially consolidate) the separation of powers structure of the United States. 2. Trump can still carry out tariff war through other terms, but the difficulty of war has really increased. The situation where he could play cards at will has become that he needs to think about the order of playing cards first and then play a series of moves. A single game has turned into a chain game. 3. It is impossible to refund the taxes received before, after all, this judgment only stated that it was unconstitutional and did not say how to refund it. Just finding some excuses to delay until the end of the term will pass the matter. 4. The increased difficulty in tax collection may indeed affect the US fiscal revenue, which will force Trump to put pressure on the Federal Reserve. After Walsh takes office, he may quickly reduce interest rates+QE. The so-called scale reduction is just the expected management before he really takes over. 5. Trump's success in learning depends not only on striking Iran and achieving visible results, but also on his visit to China in April. However, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not relaxed yet, and there are variables in the itinerary of the visit to China. However, according to Chinese customs, as long as Trump is allowed to visit China, it must have achieved some exchange of interests, and will not be released without results. 6. We take the mid-term elections in November as the core time node to calculate that Trump needs to deliver benefits at least three months in advance to achieve the best results. Sending it too early may cause voters to forget and potentially trigger inflation, while sending it too late may ruin the election due to poor public sentiment. So August may be the best time for interest rate cuts, QE, and even cryptocurrency spending. 7. In the past, bear markets would last for about a year. Starting from October 2025, this year's October should also be the end. If we calculate based on a 70% retracement of the bear market limit, a 70% retracement of 126000 would be around 38000, which is indeed the target price that many people are calling for. If it really continues to fall for 8 months from now, this price is indeed not impossible. But we cannot use simple mathematical calculations like carving a boat and seeking a sword as a basis for decision-making. If we extrapolate according to point 6, August is the best window for a substantial policy shift (interest rate cuts+QE+fiscal stimulus), then the "smart money" of Wall Street and the cryptocurrency industry will definitely not wait until August to take action. The capital market usually starts to react a quarter or even earlier. This means that if the big pie and US stocks are to bottom out and reverse, it is likely that they will not need to wait until October. By the end of the second quarter (May June), when Walsh officially takes over Powell and the market starts to speculate on "new officials taking office+loose expectations", the bottom is likely to have been identified in advance and started to reverse. This is the time point after Trump's visit to China, and the external environment should allow the United States to carry out more operations. 9. The Supreme Court's suspension of some tariffs has actually given global supply chains and multinational technology giants (especially AI and semiconductor industry chains) a sigh of relief, which was also the core driving force behind yesterday's sharp rise in the US stock market. But this is only a 'probation' rather than a 'pardon'. If Trump's visit to China in April fails to gain substantial leverage, he will definitely bypass the restrictions of the supreme law and increase his leverage on technical blockade, physical list or targeted attack in specific industries. The current rebound of US tech giants could face another valuation reassessment at any time due to the second half of the US China tech game. 10. Gold and silver are rising together, seemingly due to a change in risk aversion, but in reality, it is a bet that the deterioration of US fiscal revenue will ultimately be solved by the printing press. No matter how tariffs are imposed or tossed around, the soaring US government debt is irreversible. If Walsh makes a big effort to cooperate with Trump to keep the mid-term elections in November, the US dollar credit will be further diluted. So the current gold, silver, and large cakes are essentially hedging against the expectation of a "big release" in the second half of the year. 11. If Trump forcefully stimulates and scatters money in August for the purpose of elections, and at the same time acts against Iran in the Middle East for the sake of "visible results", resulting in the soaring international oil prices, it is very likely that the fourth quarter of this year will usher in a fierce fight against inflation. If inflation rises again, it will not only disrupt the subsequent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but also cause the market to enter a stagflation panic - asset prices maintain a foam because of water release, but the real economy is in recession. Under this scenario, the highly liquid currency circle and non core US stocks will be the worst victims. 12. To sum up, in the first half of the year, we should focus on the results of Trump's visit to China and the handover of the chairman of the Federal Reserve in May. If some macro black swan events could create a golden pit, it would be a great buying point. The three months before the election, when policy dividends were released intensively, are likely to be the best period of the main uptrend for making money this year. The final main uptrend may end with the panic caused by secondary inflation. So the script of first falling, then rising, and then falling has been written. As for whether it will go like this, let's wait and see.