What stage of the bear market are we in now? After the deleveraging drop, the market quickly entered a bottoming and redistribution phase, which some people call the second stage of the bear market. Here’s why, based on the data: Currently, the macro environment is characterized by inflation easing under high interest rates, with a moderate financial environment. This won’t lead to a market crash, but it also lacks the momentum to kick off a major bull run. - The Fed’s policy rate target range remains at 3.50%–3.75% - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates around 4.0% - Inflation pressure has eased, and the unemployment rate is at a manageable 4.3% - The Fed’s total assets are approximately $6.62T, in the balance sheet reduction phase In short, there’s not much good news, but the bad news is manageable. The macro environment is at a soft landing point. Within the crypto market, most of the funds that wanted to exit have already done so, leaving the remaining funds to test the market bottom. As of now, only 50% of BTC holders are in profit, meaning nearly half are at a loss or break-even. However, the price is still above the average cost basis of the entire market. In other words, BTC still has some potential to dip further, but most of the bubble has already been squeezed out. As for altcoins, there’s no need to elaborate—almost everyone is at a loss. The derivatives market is extremely calm, even leaning bearish. BTC perpetual contract funding rates have been near zero or slightly negative for several days. The total stablecoin market cap is around $307.64B, shrinking by -1.29% over the past 30 days. If the stablecoin market cap starts growing again, that could be a good signal for a bottom. Typically, this bottoming phase doesn’t end quickly. Unless a black swan event accelerates things or liquidity improves over time, we’ll have to wait for a large-scale return of BTC demand, global monetary easing, or some systemic positive news for crypto to truly end the bear market.