"This Down Cycle Is Unlikely to End as Lightly as in the Past" When Bitcoin was trading in the $80–90K range, I felt the market mood was more serious than many realized. Since then, I have taken a more bearish view than I initially expected. btc price has already experienced a stronger shock, and my view has not changed. I believe this down cycle could be more extreme than previous ones. It is unlikely to end lightly. 1. There is no clear buying liquidity. The most important point is simple: I do not see strong buyers stepping in to actively use this bearish phase as an opportunity. 2. There is too much information now. In the 2020 cycle, on-chain data was not as widely used as it is today. Only a small group relied on it. Now, institutions and many different types of investors use it actively. 3. The “clarity” of on-chain data has become a problem. Today, most arguments start from on-chain data. Well-processed data looks clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet. It is easy for beginners to understand and easy for analysts to explain. The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches similar conclusions. In many cases, even the people producing the data do not fully understand it. When information becomes too common, it pushes expectations in one direction. And information that everyone knows rarely gives a real edge in the market. 4. Conviction became stronger after ETF approval. Once institutional buying became public through ETFs, people began to think like this: - Above $100K: “Institutions bought. How could it crash?” - At $80–90K: “Institutions bought. How could it fall further?” The more information people have, the stronger their confidence becomes. But most investors are not 10–20 year holders. We analyze the market to avoid 50% drawdowns and to capture 100%+ gains. We do not analyze the market just to justify losses after they happen. 5. Institutions and individuals see price levels differently. If an institution expects Bitcoin to reach $1.5 million by 2030, then $100K, $50K, or even $30K may all look like accumulation zones to them. But from a cycle perspective, those same levels can still belong to a major bear market. The belief that “institutions are buying, so price must go up” can lead investors to sit through a large drawdown. - Conclusion In an environment flooded with information, a bear cycle can actually become more dangerous. Because the data looks clear and structured, people do not panic easily. Yes, in the long run, Bitcoin will likely go up. But we do not analyze the market just to reach the conclusion that “it will eventually rise.” There is a huge amount of information available today, and that information creates strong conviction. Ironically, that conviction may make this process take even longer. This is something we need to keep in mind. That is why I believe this cycle may bring one of two outcomes, or possibly both: - A larger-than-expected drop - A longer-than-expected sideways period Either way, I do not think this cycle will end lightly compared to the past.(mignolet)