Saw Panda Teacher @0xCryptoChan discussing with Checkmate about 'the impact of unrealized profits hidden in a large amount of lost or long-dormant BTC on the effectiveness of indicators.' I totally resonate with this. It’s the same idea as when we calculated <10y_RP a few days ago to measure the probability of triggering a deep bear market. So, based on the algorithm he shared publicly: (SMA(AVIV, 1440) - N * STD(AVIV, 1440)) * True Market Mean Price, I replicated this indicator for extreme price deviation based on 'AVIV.' AVIV Extreme Deviation Pricing Range (4-year rolling window) Here are a few takeaways I’d like to share with everyone: 1. The indicator is based on AVIV, which avoids the interference caused by long-term dormant coins and miners’ holdings compared to MVRV. At the same time, the deviation itself is also a statistical issue. Although it’s still a heuristic indicator, the algorithm has done everything possible to minimize interference and restore reality. 2. Looking at the big picture, using +1.5 standard deviations (red line) as the upper range to identify cycle tops is becoming less effective. Starting from the second top of the last cycle, it failed to trigger signals. Now, only exceeding +0.5 std (orange line) can be used as a vague standard for the start of a bull market. 3. However, it’s very effective as a standard for identifying bear market bottoms across multiple cycles. Dropping below -1 std (blue line) indicates entering the bear market bottom range. It doesn’t necessarily have to hit -1.5 std (purple line); sometimes it gets close. But as long as it 'touches,' it’s highly likely to be a precise bottom signal. 4. When the blue line provides support, a rebound to the green line becomes the resistance level. If it breaks below the blue line and finds support at the purple line, the next breakthrough of the blue line signals the end of the bear market. Currently, the green line is around $79,000, the blue line is $65,600, and the purple line is $52,100. This aligns closely with our previous conclusion that <10y_RP represents the bear market bottom range, showing that excluding 10y+ data makes the conclusion more consistent. Lastly, a big thank you to Panda Teacher for the selfless sharing and highly constructive discussions!