QCP Capital: This bear market is more like a liquidity reset than a structural collapse BlockBeats News: On February 12th, Elbert Iswara, Head of Customer Coverage at QCP Capital, stated in a podcast that this bear market is more like a liquidity reset than a structural collapse. Elbert described this round of volatility as a sharp but not uncommon pullback in history, with a rebound from around $60000 indicating that potential demand still exists, especially from long-term holders and institutions. Elbert believes that the market direction is driven by broader risk aversion sentiment, including tightening liquidity and shifts in interest rate expectations. However, specific factors such as ETF fund outflows, derivative position adjustments, and leveraged liquidation have amplified this volatility, making it faster and more volatile. At present, Bitcoin is trading in the form of a liquidity sensitive risk asset, especially during periods of tightening or stress. Elbert pointed out that this does not negate the narrative logic of its value storage, but it does mean that investors should not expect it to exhibit hedging properties in every sell-off. Bitcoin is still a hybrid asset, and its role will switch with macroeconomic cycles. Elbert emphasized that several short-term indicators that are currently more important than narrative include: ·Key price range and position: The $60000- $65000 range remains an important psychological and technical range, and weak liquidity may amplify the risk of price overshoot. ·The sustainability of ETF fund flow: Whether the outflow of funds continues or stabilizes will affect short-term price behavior, especially in volatile markets. ·Leverage and liquidation: When crowded positions are quickly closed, violent fluctuations are often amplified. ·Correlation pattern: The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks usually increases during risk aversion periods and falls back after macroeconomic pressures ease. The key lies in the speed of this decline. Elbert stated that in the short term, investors should view Bitcoin as a macro sensitive asset with high beta properties and manage their risk exposure accordingly. In the long run, the true drivers of value are adoption rate, market structure maturity, and whether institutional participation can stabilize over the cycle.