From a distance, this is how the psychology of Bitcoin market participants currently looks to me. 1. “ Fear & Greed Index suggests the market may already be near a bottom.” 2. “After this kind of decline, shouldn’t there at least be a rebound?” Because of this mindset, even small structural signals seem to generate strong expectations. This also leads many participants to interpret the current consolidation as a whale accumulation phase. However, based on the indicators I follow, nothing has fundamentally changed. There may still be short-term price movements that give the market some hope. But in my view, that is likely all it would be. Even during the previous bull cycle, Bitcoin moved sideways for more than eight months before the next major rally began. But the current environment is not a bull cycle. It is a bear cycle, and the overall market conditions are significantly worse than they were back then. In this situation, the market seems to be assigning far too much meaning to a consolidation period that has lasted less than two months. If the market were truly in extreme fear, strong expectations would not appear this quickly. In my view, there are only two realistic possibilities: 1. A very long consolidation period 2. An unresolved downside shock in price Personally, I believe the probability of further downside shock remains quite high.(mignolet)