XinGPT🐶
XinGPT🐶|Feb 11, 2026 16:03
Don't tell jokes, tell something serious. The US stock market is currently discussing ABT (Anything But Tech), which means not buying technology stocks. The main reason is that the capital expenditures of US tech giants are too high, exceeding $740 billion. It's equivalent to using all the earned cash flow to burn money and invest in AI, instead of buying back stocks as before. Then the market will worry: can your way of smashing AI have an effective rate of return? According to calculations, in order to maintain this cash flow of throwing money, you must have more than twice the profit to support it. Therefore, the market is worried that the AI foam will become excessively foam due to the cash flow. Nowadays, no one buys technology stocks because there has been a recent pullback in technology stocks, but this situation is actually unsolvable. Because all giants are worried that if you don't spend money while others burn it, you will fall behind. Although you guarantee the current profit margin, everyone's expectations for your future will be discounted. So no giant can afford to fall behind, and this high capital expenditure will definitely continue. So the best case scenario is that this cash flow can ignite new business models, like cloud computing. Although a lot of infrastructure has been invested in the early stage, future business revenue will have much higher than expected cash flow returns. However, in the short term, multiple giants may need to issue corporate bonds and raise funds in the bond market to maintain this high capital expenditure. So I think we need to closely monitor the debt ratio of enterprises. If his own cash flow cannot cover the debt, or if the leverage ratio is too high and the income has not yet generated positive cash flow expectations, then he should be alert to the crisis of debt leverage. But now I still think we should be more optimistic and believe in the speed of AI development. In this situation, capital investment is necessary. I also believe that the future business model of AI can generate positive returns on capital expenditures.
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