Let’s take a 'carving a mark on the boat to find the sword' approach, but not in a rigid way! From the chart below, we can clearly see the duration and extent of each bear market adjustment. Generally, the duration is about one year, and the extent is around 80%. As Bitcoin’s market size grows, the upward momentum of each bull market has been decreasing, and the retracement during bear markets is relatively smaller. However, it’s still very likely to exceed 50%. If it drops to $50k, that’s roughly a 60% drop. If it reaches this level or below, gradually buying in batches might be close to the bottom zone. For now, neither the time nor the extent is quite there yet, so don’t rush—be patient and wait. The bottom will definitely appear at some point this year, but the biggest question is: when Bitcoin hits the bottom, will you still have ammo left?