The Path Toward $10,000 Bitcoin Includes a Bounce from $64,000 - Here's how/why (my own-it, or wear-it views): - $64k is a speedbump on the way back down, roughly the mode from 2024, the year that fueled the final silliness stage - A normal 20% BTC bounce from $64,000 is $72,000 - The first-born crypto has proven it's neither digital gold nor leveraged beta, it's a highly speculative #-on-the-screen tracking nothing with unlimited competition - The purge of Billions of AUM in Millions of copycats is early days - Crypto-dollars (stable coins) are great for 'Peer-to-Peer Cash' (thank you Trump 2.0 for getting what 1.0 didn't) - Crypto's got Trumped, Stocks are Next remains my base case - Signs of wrong: BTC stays above $90k - Signs of right: S&P 500 180-day volatility at 11% reverts from an almost 8-year low - Matter of time, volatility always reverts toward its mean (10-yr about 18%) - Gold and silver pump-then-dumps this year are reminiscent of multi-year highs. Volatility to trickle up to stocks - Cheer-leader and chief, President Trump, will be a lame duck this time next year - Atlas's burden rests on US stocks at the most stretched vs. GDP in about a century - The next 10% drawdown in beta to show the greatest receding-tide effect in history - US T-bonds are the NBT (next big trade) - Future generations will replace tulip mania with crypto frenzy as the primary analogy for markets that simply went up too much. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/ta1auakip3jw {BI COMD} #bitcoin #stockmarket #gold #bonds #macroeconomic @markets(Mike McGlone)