“People say that since everyone is bearish, the market should do the opposite—so why is it actually going down? Isn’t the market supposed to move against the prevailing sentiment?” 1. Fallacy of "Majority Sentiment": The key point is that “everyone” is not truly expecting a decline. In reality, market sentiment still leans more toward upside than downside. This can be clearly seen in Charts 1 and 2. 2. "Buy the Dip" Trap : We are still in the "Green Box" phase, not the "Blue Box" (Chart 3). At this stage, the market has "learned" to view even genuinely negative signals as buying opportunities. This psychological bias leads participants to misinterpret downside moves, further clarifying the situation mentioned in Point 1. 3. Post-Hoc "Whale" Narrative : Even if it meant criticism, decisive action and clear calls were needed. Most analysts failed to do that. Because of the belief that the market will always go up in the long run, we kept hearing the same narrative at $90K, $80K, and $70K: “This is just whales shaking people out.” Yes, the market may rise again someday, but the current phase is already bearish. 4. "Hope" Narrative vs. Objectivity: Many participants still want hope, and they want to rely on it. That’s why they prefer to hear the narratives described in point 3, while those who speak about downside are attacked. At this stage, it’s worth asking: who has been shaping these narratives, and have we really been using data objectively? 5. Persistence of the Four-Year Cycle: Many argue that the four-year cycle has broken. Ironically, the market still appears to be following that broader rhythm. But the four-year cycle does not guarantee constant upside. If so, isn’t it also reasonable that a longer period of downside remains possible? 6. Lack of Real Buying Liquidity: For the familiar “bottom pattern” seen during bull markets to work again, there must be actual buying forces that use this zone. I’ve consistently said that this is currently missing. Many people talk about patterns, but even a strong pattern is meaningless if no one actually acts on it. 7. A Fundamental Shift: We have now entered a phase that is difficult to reverse quickly. Until a true bottom forms, the same explanation—“this is all part of a whale plan or manipulation”—is likely to be repeated. Recognizing that something is fundamentally wrong may still take considerable time.(mignolet)