The K33 report states that the decline in Bitcoin has sparked cyclical concerns, but a deep bear market may be difficult to reproduce

The K33 research report points out that Bitcoin has fallen by about 40% since its peak in October last year, sparking concerns about a four-year cyclical decline. However, structural factors such as the increase in institutional adoption rates, inflow of funds from regulated products such as spot ETFs, and loose interest rate environment make it less likely for the market to repeat the deep bear market of 2018 or 2022. The report emphasizes that there have been no forced deleveraging events such as GBTC, Luna, or FTX that have caused systemic crashes. Technical analysis shows that $74000 is the key support level, and if it falls, the downside risk may point to $69000 or even $58000 (near the 200 week moving average). In addition, extreme negative signals from Bitcoin spot trading volume, open derivative contracts, and funding rates, combined with prices still above support levels, may indicate that the market is attempting to bottom out.