There are two key points I want to highlight. First, despite claims that OTC balances are near historical lows, the idea that this alone will create a supply shock and push prices higher is questionable. A supply shock only works if strong buying liquidity is present. OTC market includes both buyers and sellers. If selling pressure cannot be absorbed, those assets will eventually move to exchanges and turn into sell-side liquidity, potentially creating volatility in the opposite direction of expectations. Looking at the data, OTC buying liquidity has declined sharply compared to last year. Prices have risen, but OTC liquidity has continued to fall and now appears close to its limit. Second, while the current market may look similar to past “green box” phases on the surface, the underlying demand structure is very different. In previous green box periods, there were clear signs of accumulation through OTC transactions (red box). That behavior is not present in the current market. At this stage, the market appears to lack sufficient buying liquidity to absorb selling pressure, and this adjustment process may take longer than many expect.(mignolet)