律动BlockBeats|Feb 04, 2026 12:57
[On-Chain 'Bottom Signal' Reappears? Bitcoin Profit and Loss Supply Convergence Points to Around $60,000]
BlockBeats News, February 4, as reported by Coindesk, an on-chain indicator that has been validated through multiple cycles is once again drawing market attention. Data shows that when the supply of Bitcoin in profit converges significantly with the supply in loss, it often corresponds to a phase-based market bottom during a bear market.
According to Glassnode data, approximately 11.1 million BTC are currently in a profitable state, while another 8.9 million BTC are in a floating loss state. Historically, when these two metrics approach equilibrium, Bitcoin has repeatedly completed cyclical bottom formations.
Based on the current cost basis calculation, further convergence of profit and loss supply may indicate that Bitcoin's spot price is nearing the $60,000 range. This signal has appeared in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, coinciding closely with significant market lows.
Analysts point out that as prices fluctuate around the overall market cost basis, Bitcoin transitions between 'profit supply' and 'loss supply,' reflecting the overall pressure and sentiment clearance among investors. If history repeats itself, this indicator could provide a critical reference for determining whether this bear market is nearing its end.
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