星球日报|Feb 03, 2026 12:11
[Gate CBO: β Value Explains Bitcoin's Past Correlation, α Value Determines Bitcoin's Future]
Odaily Planet Daily News – Gate CBO Kevin Lee released a special analysis regarding Ark Invest's Cathie Wood's core viewpoint that 'Bitcoin's low β value possesses both offensive and defensive attributes.' He pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term value is unrelated to the level of its β value; the core lies in its unique commercialization path and network effects.
Kevin Lee stated that Bitcoin's returns are not driven by a single risk factor but are collectively influenced by structural factors such as network expansion, increased institutional participation, improved regulatory infrastructure, and the implementation of on-chain applications. Its characteristics dynamically shift with market conditions: during periods of macroeconomic shocks, it exhibits traits of a risk asset; during phases of technological iteration and adoption rate growth, Bitcoin delivers non-systematic excess returns, i.e., α value.
He emphasized that β value and α value are calculated using linear regression models, which are influenced by data intervals and statistical frequency, making it difficult to objectively define Bitcoin's true risk-return structure. While market models can explain its historical performance, they cannot constrain Bitcoin's future.
Currently, the Bitcoin network is still expanding, and its risk-return structure continues to evolve. This dynamic growth and uniqueness are the core of its long-term allocation value, further validating the allocation logic of 'proportional inclusion in portfolios to optimize the efficient frontier.'
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