Hanzo ㊗️|Jan 18, 2026 21:54
🚨 THE TREASURY JUST CROSSED A TERRIFYING THRESHOLD
US interest payments hit $981B in Q3 2025.
That's $1.2 TRILLION annualized.
Defense spending for 2026? Around $900B.
America now spends MORE on debt service than on the entire military.
First quarter of 2026, interest payments hit $179B. Up from $160B same period last year.
That's 13% in just 12 months.
Interest payments are now 19% of ALL federal revenue. Every fifth dollar collected goes straight to bondholders before a single government service gets funded.
By 2035, that hits 22% of revenue. Defense, Medicare, Social Security all get squeezed to pay interest. Not policy choices. Arithmetic.
Recent Treasury auctions are showing cracks. August 2025 saw a 10-year auction with 1.1 basis point tail.
First time in six months. Markets needed HIGHER yields to absorb supply.
Bid-to-cover ratios declining.
Primary dealers taking larger allocations because real buyers are stepping back.
This is demand destruction in slow motion.
Here's the trigger: Refinancing wall.
Trillions in Treasuries maturing over the next 24 months need to roll at MUCH higher rates than when originally issued.
Average rate on marketable debt is 3.36%.
Five years ago it was 1.55%. Debt's growing at $6.17B per day. $257M per hour.
When auction demand weakens, Treasury has two choices:
1) Accept higher yields.
Higher yields make the debt spiral worse. More interest means larger deficits. Larger deficits mean more borrowing at higher rates. It compounds.
2) Fed prints money through Yield Curve Control.
Yield Curve Control means Fed monetizes debt nobody else wants. Currency debasement. Inflation acceleration.
Neither option ends well.
Japan's 30-year yields just went vertical. That's the carry trade unwinding.
Trillions borrowed in yen to buy Treasuries now reversing. Capital flows home. Treasury demand from one of largest foreign holders weakens structurally.
Gold at $4,596. Silver at $90. Commodities rallying.
Not inflation expectations. CONFIDENCE expectations. Confidence that Treasury can service debt in real terms is evaporating.
When bond market loses faith, it doesn't announce it.
It demands higher yields. Slowly at first. Then very fast when a catalyst hits.
Interest payments exceeding defense spending is the canary.
Most people aren't watching.
They will be.(Hanzo ㊗️)
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