Just finished gnawing on Wintermute's 28 page research report, I finally understand why this round of market is so "difficult to make" From the perspective of outsiders in the industry Regardless of whether the cryptocurrency market underperforms the US stock market, gold, or even the Big A in 2025 There is no doubt that this round is still a bull market Because it meets the most basic requirements The pancake has reached a new high, and it has set several consecutive ATHs But as an insider There is no physical feeling of a bull market at all Because most of the knockoffs have hit new lows countless times in the past year This means that traditional Chinese chives have not made any money in the bull market And this round of shanzhai fundraising and listing performance is also different from before The market now prefers projects with market making experience I even prefer coins issued by market makers or quantitative teams The most typical one is Hype And coins issued by market makers like DWF, such as FF At least there is no need to worry about losing money or liquidity issues when investing in such projects And Wintermute, as one of the largest market makers in the current cryptocurrency market Its perspective may be the god's perspective of the industry So this 28 page research report is definitely worth savoring Because it's not commenting on K-line But rather dismantling: How did the money come in How are risks deployed Where does liquidity ultimately gather And why it no longer rotates to the knockoff 1) The most crucial change in this cycle: Money is no longer 'market wide rotation' Wintermute's general conclusion is very harsh: 2025 marks a fundamental shift in the liquidity mechanism of the cryptocurrency market Capital is no longer widely dispersed But it becomes highly concentrated and unevenly distributed A large amount of trading volume is limited to a few tokens The market rise is shorter and more pulsating The income is also more diversified The familiar 'wealth effect' path you used to follow is: BTC → ETH → Mainstream knockoffs → Long tail knockoffs This transmission chain, Wintermute said directly: It has significantly weakened. Because the entrance for new money has changed Previously, we mainly relied on stablecoin issuance and direct deposit More and more money is leaving now: ETF+Digital Asset Treasury Company (DAT) And they are more like closed ecosystems in structure: The money has come in But it will not naturally spill over to a wider counterfeit market 2) Why do knockoffs make people despair? Because the 'lifespan of storytelling' was slashed Wintermute provided a very specific and highly lethal data: The average duration of the upward trend driven by shanzhai narrative in 2025 From approximately 61 days in 2024 Sudden drop to 19-20 days by 2025 This explains everything about your physical sensations: It's not without narrative But the narrative has become Opportunistic transactions rather than Belief based Follow You can see the meme startup platform perp DEX New payment/API infrastructure (such as x402) It will explode in stages But the follow-up efforts are very limited Because the 'breadth' of the market has shrunk Narrative cannot withstand the liquidity threshold 3) Why is OTC important? Because it exposes the market truth earlier than the price Wintermute emphasizes one point: Price is just the result But the flow of OTC reveals: How risks are deployed How participant behavior evolves Which parts are continuously active Continuous growth in OTC trading volume by 2025 It's not because everyone is happier But it's because in an environment of volatility and thinning liquidity Large amounts of funds require: Privacy+controllability+execution certainty This also corresponds to their description of 2025: Fluctuating trend macro drivers Pulse wave And the so-called 'seasonal rebound at the end of the year' has not been reproduced Because the 'October rise' in the past was often not seasonal But rather the event market brought about by specific catalysts (ETFs, elections, etc.) 4) Derivatives are the main battlefield of this round: risks have been dealt with in advance Wintermute made it very clear in the derivatives section: Strong growth of OTC derivatives in 2025 The reason is not speculation, it's even crazier On the contrary - it's the counterparty who is more professional Two key changes: (1) Expansion of Futures/Contracts for Differences underlying The number of tokens used for price difference contracts at OTC counters From 15 to 46 (triple year-on-year) This indicates that the market is becoming increasingly accustomed to using more capital efficient ways to gain exposure And perpetual OI has been around $120 billion since the beginning of the year Rising to approximately $245 billion in October Subsequently, risk appetite plummeted during the deleveraging event on October 11th This paragraph is actually telling you: Structural leverage is on the rise, but there will also be concentrated liquidation (2) Maturity of the options market: from collateralization to systematic returns/hedging Q4 2025 compared to Q1: The nominal transaction amount is about 3.8 times Approximately 2.1 times the number of transactions More importantly, the purpose has changed: In the past, options were more about buying calls and betting on price increases Now it's more like: Sell put/reserve call for profit Simultaneously maintaining the need for downward protection (buy put) Establish a more stable supply of options The result is to lower the implied volatility Summary in one sentence: It's not that there's no risk, but rather that the risk has been pre locked into the structure. This is one of the core reasons why you think 'bull markets don't feel anything': Volatility is suppressed by the return strategy Extreme market conditions have been flattened by hedging tools 5) Why are individual investors more difficult to earn? Because encryption is no longer the 'preferred risk asset' Wintermute also added a knife: By 2025, cryptocurrency will lose its position as the "preferred risk asset" for retail investors Retail investors' attention is diverted by stock themes such as AI, robotics, and quantum Encryption is no longer the default exit for excessive risk-taking This matter explains: Why does the macro seem not bad But the knockoff just can't get up 6) Wintermute's three scenarios for 2026: What should you focus on? The recovery path they provided is not nonsense like 'the cow is back' But three very specific conditions (at least one of which occurs): 1) ETF/DAT expands investment scope Promotion of more ETFs such as SOL and XRP And the gradual expansion of institutional investment scope 2) Mainstream coins lead the market with strong momentum BTC/ETH rises first With wealth effect But the proportion of spillover to shanzhai is still unknown 3) Retail investors focus on returning to cryptocurrency They themselves imply that the probability is lower My judgment Wintermute is actually announcing: The four-year cycle narrative is losing its effectiveness. Let me be more straightforward: This cycle is not without a bull market But instead entered into a Stage with low volatility, high differentiation, and stronger structural constraints You can't make money It's not because you're not working hard But you're still using the 2021 'rotation script' Go play the 'structural game' of 2026 What else can retail investors do? I have an unpleasant suggestion: If you don't understand the structure of derivatives and don't engage in volatility strategies Then don't expect to rely on the 'shanzhai season' to save you What you need to focus on is: New money entry (ETF/DAT/stablecoin increment) Has liquidity started to spread outward Has the 'sustainability' of narrative changed from 20 days to 60 days And whether there are new signals of "breadth" in the market Otherwise, the likelihood of counterfeiting is still: Short term game+fast in and fast out