Changes in Bitcoin Chain Data in the First Week of 2026- Has Bitcoin's Bear Market Arrived? My conclusion is that we are still not in a bear market of panic selling, and most investors remain optimistic. The selling volume is not exaggerated, but due to insufficient liquidity, purchasing power is still poor, and wait-and-see brings about a volatile trend. At present, I still believe that the price trend of BTC will mainly be volatile in the short term. Yesterday's data clearly shows that although investors have confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects, the current buying sentiment and liquidity are not enough to support a significant increase in BTC prices. After all, there are still many investors trapped above, and the upward trend of the US stock market will lead some cryptocurrency investors to switch to the US stock market. The main problem we are currently facing is weak upward momentum, so in yesterday's data, I also pointed out that the conditions for turning into a bull market are not yet met in terms of politics, liquidity, and trading volume. So is Bitcoin a bear market now? I still don't think so. Distribution of BTC holdings in the past year From the data of Bitcoin holdings distribution in the past year, there have been signs of high net worth users increasing their holdings and small-scale investors selling. In the past week, there has been a slight easing, with high net worth investors continuing to increase their holdings and small-scale investors also increasing their holdings. Although the decline in BTC prices may cause some small-scale investors to return to the selling trend, it also indicates that small-scale investors are more sensitive to prices. As long as BTC prices have an upward trend, small-scale investors will prefer to chase higher prices. This also indicates that small-scale investors in the market have funds on hand, and the main reason for not buying is that they lack confidence in short-term price changes. Once it is confirmed that there will be positive news, small-scale investors will also chase after it. Let alone increase the net worth of investors. The amount of BTC held for a long time in the past year Moreover, according to the position data of high net worth investors, there has not been much selling in the past year. High net worth investors are gradually becoming long-term investors. Comparing with the data of long-term investors, it can be seen that in the past year, more than 13.88 million bitcoins have been locked in for a long time. Currently, there are still over 14.2 million BTC in long-term holdings. This indicates that high net worth and long-term holders are not very keen on short-term price changes, and there are no signs of significant selling. From the data, it can be seen that nearly 600000 BTC have been released from long-term holding since July. However, if compared with exchange data, it can also be found that the stock of the exchange has decreased by more than 200000 at the same time. Long term holdings of BTC and exchange stock data in the past year But if we look at the data from the past year, there are still more than 300000 BTC that have changed from short-term holdings to long-term holdings. Even if the price falls, this also indicates that there are still more investors who use BTC as a long-term holding method and have not participated in the circulation of the market. BTC contract not tied in the past year In addition, from the data of BTC's unsettled contracts, it can be seen that the data is currently at a relatively low level, which also indicates that investors are still hesitant about the direction and do not have clear signs. For example, when it is clear that there will be an increase or a decrease, the volume of unsettled contracts will increase significantly, but it is still at a low level, indicating that investors are still in a long short game trend. So from my personal perspective, the current main narrative must still be the US monetary policy. Even if the events in Venezuela ultimately affect the price of oil, it will still return to the issue of US inflation. If the monetary policy does not undergo significant changes, it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin will maintain a fluctuating trend during junk time. This means that the trend of BTC is not in the high liquidity of a bull market, with high FOMO among investors, and there is no situation of panic selling among long-term investors and high net worth investors. The data still shows that although a large number of investors remain optimistic (reducing selling), they are not actively buying (insufficient liquidity). @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits