The pace of this bear market is completely different from before Bitcoin fell 50% from its peak, but the S&P 500 only pulled back less than 3% from All Time High. How unusual is this matter? Let's review history. 2018/12 bear market bottom BTC retraced -84% from its peak, while the S&P 500 retraced -20% from its peak, hitting the threshold of a bear market. The panic selling on Christmas Eve was the most panicked moment since 2009. 2022/11 bear market bottom BTC retraced from its high point by -78%. At that time, the S&P 500 retreated by -25% from its peak, marking its worst performance since 2008. Have you noticed the pattern? At the bottom of the past two Bitcoin bear markets, the S&P 500 has fallen by 20-25% and is at a relatively low point in the long cycle. But this time Bitcoin has already halved, and the S&P 500 has just withdrawn 3% from ATH. This level of deviation has never occurred in history. If you look closely at the Bitcoin chart, you will find something very strange. Since October last year, Bitcoin seems to have lost its magic. US stocks rise, BTC doesn't follow. The US stock market fell slightly, and BTC jumped directly. What exactly happened in October? Looking back, there are only two major events. Firstly, the 1011 incident On October 10th, Trump announced the imposition of 100% tariffs on China. The cryptocurrency market cleared $19 billion overnight, and 1.6 million accounts were liquidated. BTC went from 120000 to 100000. This is the largest single day clearing event in the history of cryptocurrency. Secondly, the Double Aspiration Case Chen Zhi and Qian Zhimin were arrested almost at the same time. Chen Zhi was confiscated 127271 BTC by the US government. Qian Zhimin has been detained by the British government for 61000 BTC. Together, nearly 190000 bitcoins are all lying in the government's cold wallet. What is the concept of 190000 pieces? In July 2024, the German government sold 50000 BTC and smashed it from 70000 to 50000 within three weeks. And the total amount of this double petition case is nearly four times that of Germany. With the lessons learned from Germany's coin sales, the potential selling pressure of these 190000 BTC is like a bomb hanging over the market. The Huione exchange behind Chen Zhi is very important for the liquidity of the entire cryptocurrency market. When this empire is terminated, it is like a huge liquidity provider in the knockoff market suddenly disappearing. After 1011, Memecoin's total market value halved from $80 billion to $47 billion, and it has not recovered yet, which is a microcosm of this incident. In the past few months, we have generally heard a voice: the market value of Bitcoin has become very large, and with ETFs, the volatility will be relatively small, so the bear market pullback should not be as severe as before. But now it seems that the impact of 1011 and the Shuangzhi case may be even greater than we imagined. So back to the original question: Is it really over yet? Can we copy the bottom now? I don't know. But I know one thing. If history has any reference value, the bottom of Bitcoin usually only appears after the US stock market also admits its mistake. And now, the US stock market is still at the party. The music hasn't stopped yet.