Why is it said that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has expired? The four-year cycle of Bitcoin in traditional narratives is essentially a price model dominated by supply shocks: The trigger point of the core event is that the block reward is halved every four years, which will form a transmission path: halving → sudden drop in new supply → drop in miners' selling pressure → intensified scarcity narrative → amplified speculative demand → rising foam → deleveraging crash Several cycles in history: 2012 → 2013 Bull Top 2016 → 2017 Bull Top 2020 → 2021 Niuding But with the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, the popularity of the DAT model, and Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve for the United States and many countries around the world, the participants of Bitcoin have undergone significant changes, and this is no longer a market dominated by retail sentiment. Mainly reflected in: Moreover, the current annualized new supply of BTC is approximately 0.8%, and after further halving, it will be approximately 0.4%, which is far lower than the annualized increment of gold (approximately 1.5-2%), as well as the expansion speed of US Treasury bonds and the global M2 growth rate. Over time, the new supply of Bitcoin will continue to be absorbed by the market. The only thing that could have a significant impact on Bitcoin is the sell-off of old whale addresses, as well as the problems that arise with new models such as ETFs and DAT, which have been widely discussed before. As the most conservative institutions with top-level discourse power, including Morgan Stanley, embrace the cryptocurrency industry (and just applied for spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Solana today), Haige believes that these issues may not arise or may only occur on a small scale. Moreover, with the Federal Reserve ending QT and officially entering a loose cycle of QE and interest rate cuts, many problems that were previously thought to arise will be easily solved under the support of liquidity. The cryptocurrency industry will usher in an important stage of development and break out of this so-called four-year cycle of Bitcoin bull and bear. The above viewpoints compiled by Hai Ge are not new, just a few notes to refresh everyone.