qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jan 05, 2026 00:29
Tiezhu's outlook on dollar liquidity is definitely worth a closer look. From the balance sheet perspective, dollar liquidity is far more than just the numbers on the Fed's balance sheet. It should be defined as the willingness and ability of financial intermediaries (especially G-SIB banks) to expand their balance sheets under the current risk appetite. Our views align perfectly. A few days ago, I also discussed this here: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2006564661702045802?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A. Beyond paying attention to the Fed's rate-cut and balance-sheet expansion pace in 2026, we should focus more on the U.S. regulators loosening restrictions on the banking sector. The perceived and actual availability of dollar liquidity in financial markets depends not only on the Fed but also on whether banks, as intermediaries, are willing and able to release these dollars—and at what cost. This becomes especially critical when we realize that the reserve balances in the banking system have dropped to a level that appears sufficient but is no longer marginally loose. In 2026, the Fed, OCC, and FDIC will gradually loosen restrictions on the banking sector: - Lower capital requirements and limit capital increase rates; - Reduce leverage ratios for community banks; - Adjust the additional fees and supplementary leverage ratios for global systemically important banks (SLR unbinding). These moves mean that the banking system, especially global systemically important banks, could free up hundreds of billions of dollars in excess regulatory capital, creating room for balance sheet expansion. Essentially, it’s about enabling the banking sector to resume lending.
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