Recently, there is a place in the world where housing prices have been soaring continuously. This place is Vietnam. Vietnam is experiencing a wave of house grabbing! Thousands of people lined up in the early hours of the morning, while the police maintained order, and there were even crazy scenes of people fighting, just like the booming domestic real estate market 10 years ago. The housing prices in the core areas of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have surged to 21000 RMB per square meter, directly benchmarking against Suzhou, China. The core CBD housing prices are as high as 40000 to 80000 RMB, benchmarking against Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. But absurdly, the monthly salary of ordinary Vietnamese workers still hovers around 2000-3000 yuan. There is a huge gap between housing prices and per capita income. Some media are saying: This is the next China, Pudong twenty years ago. Hurry up and buy it. Some readers have also asked me if I want to invest in the real estate market in Vietnam, but I suggest those who have such thoughts to calm down and understand the logic behind the two first. Vietnam has been copying Chinese homework, but in reality, it has not been fully understood. The real estate boom in China for twenty consecutive years is built on the dual foundation of the "infrastructure maniac" and the "industrialization explosion". The current surge in Vietnam is essentially a combination of "currency out of control", "incomplete system", and "foreign capital hunting". Not possessing long-term characteristics. Firstly, why does Vietnam dare to rise? The fundamental reason is not the outbreak of housing demand, but rather that 'money is no longer valuable'. In the past two years, the global economy has been sluggish, and everyone is tightening their belts. But in order to maintain the political red line of 7% -8% GDP in Vietnam, the Central Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has taken the opposite approach by crazily cutting interest rates and printing money. The deposit interest rate has broken through 4%, while the inflation rate remains high. This means that Vietnam has actually entered the era of negative interest rates. Saving money is losing money. The government originally hoped that this money would flow into factories to produce Nike shoes and assemble Samsung phones. But reality is extremely fragile: Tianliang's liquidity circled around the real economy and found it unprofitable, so he chose to buy assets instead. In addition, with the transfer of global industrial chains, Korean chaebols and Chinese bosses have flooded in with US dollars. Domestic investors seek refuge, while foreign investors seek to seize the market. Two funds merged and all rushed into the real estate market. If it were just currency depreciation, even if houses rise, they wouldn't have risen so outrageously. The fatal blow to the Vietnamese real estate market comes from insufficient supply power. Vietnam officially introduced the "New Land Law" in 2024 to marketize land prices. The cost exploded instantly, and the developer's land acquisition cost increased by 3-5 times. What's even more alarming is that under the pressure of anti-corruption, officials, faced with the vague standard of "market pricing", have chosen to completely "mess up" and not sign or approve. The result is a cliff like drop in supply. Hanoi, a super city with a population of millions, only supplies 39000 houses in a year. This extreme supply-demand mismatch has pushed housing prices out of control. And China follows the principle of 'building roads first, then getting rich'. Before we sold the land, most of the subways, high-speed trains, and cross sea bridges had already been opened. The housing prices in China include a very high "urban service premium" (efficiency, security, healthcare, etc.). But Vietnam doesn't. Ho Chi Minh City, a subway that has been under construction for over a decade but still cannot be connected, the roads are congested, and the drainage system is in a mess Vietnam, in the context of extremely backward infrastructure, first skyrocketed housing prices. What people buy is just a reinforced concrete box with only expectations of price increases and no living experience. If the homework is not copied clearly, all the side effects will eventually be reported to the livelihood system. For example, after a sustained irrational rise, it is accompanied by mutual harvesting between social classes. At a price of 20000 yuan per square meter, 90% of Vietnamese people simply cannot afford it. So who will buy it? The answer is that foreign capital and domestic power are expensive. Priced at 80 million Vietnamese dong, benchmarked against Singapore. Houses have become standard financial products. However, the per capita housing area of local residents is only about 15-22 square meters, stagnant, and the cost of renting accounts for more than 50% of their income. They cannot afford to buy or rent, so ordinary people can only be forced to squeeze out to urban villages, suburban edge settlements, or garbage dumps in the city. There are not many "middle classes" in Vietnam, and almost all of their savings are contributed to houses. In order to get tickets to the core area and squeeze into a place with a better living experience, we had to desperately borrow and leverage, and as a result, the funds were all given to foreign capital holding US dollars. Young people in Vietnam can only afford to buy a house after 28 years without eating or drinking. This is no longer a foam. Analyzing Vietnam is to see ourselves clearly. There are three inspirations behind the skyrocketing housing prices in Vietnam: 1. Be wary of the asset logic in the era of inflation. Once the printing press stops, inflation accelerates. When the real interest rate is negative, it will lead to a rebound or surge in housing prices, and sometimes even no economic support is needed. However, it should be noted that only core assets (cities with well-developed infrastructure and mature industries) can lead the way in rising, just like in Vietnam, where the continuous surge in housing prices is only concentrated in core cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. 2. Real estate is an unavoidable path for emerging countries to catch up with the economy. However, although the short-term rise in land prices can boost the government, in the long run it will squeeze the real economy, push up corporate costs, and lead to a serious disconnect between housing prices and income. At present, some foreign investors have started to cash out and leave the market. If they continue to speculate according to this script, there is a high possibility of systematic abandonment in the future. At present, major developers such as Nova in Vietnam have defaulted, with about 1200 projects suspended and inventory value accounting for about 6% of GDP. Once real estate goes bankrupt, it is fatal to the national economy. 3. No matter how housing prices are hyped up, they will eventually return to rationality. The purchasing power of the middle class behind the industrial economy is the most important support for housing prices. Having a house in a city with well-developed infrastructure, good public security, and mature industries is still the most stable trump card for ordinary people. In other words, the common people will always be hurt by the sharp rise and fall, and the slow bull market that emerges with the economic upswing and accelerated inflation is the era dividend that most people can share. In the future, the country is likely to lead all of this, focusing on stability, driving the economy with technology and industry, making the country prosperous and the people strong, and then feedback to the improvement of living quality. This is a virtuous cycle.