The default rate of leveraged loans in the United States has been consistently above 4% for 22 months, equaling the record set during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and still ongoing. This phenomenon has only occurred for three periods in history: once during the financial crisis, once during the impact of the pandemic in 2020, and now it is the third time. In addition, both the first and second times triggered an economic recession. The most noteworthy point here is not the absolute level of monthly default rate, but the time dimension of prolonged high default rates. This means that the current problem is not a one-time liquidity shock, but a sustained squeeze on corporate cash flow and refinancing capabilities in a high interest rate environment. Leveraged loans themselves usually correspond to enterprises with lower credit quality and higher debt ratios, and are also the most sensitive part of the entire credit system to changes in interest rates. When the default rate of such assets remains high for such a long time, it often means that the enterprise cannot repair itself through operational improvement or refinancing, and can only passively consume existing cash flow. Unlike 2008, this round was not the first for the banking system to come under pressure, but more focused on private equity CLO、 Non bank credit system. Risk does not erupt in a concentrated manner, but continues to be released in a slower and more dispersed manner, which is why macroeconomic data appears relatively stable on the surface, but credit pressure is constantly accumulating. From a cyclical perspective, credit is always the leading indicator. When the default rate of leveraged loans remains high for a long time, it usually means that investment, mergers and acquisitions, and capital expenditures on the enterprise side will be suppressed, and then gradually transmitted to the employment and consumption levels. Therefore, this chart does not indicate that the market has entered a recession, but rather suggests that if the high interest rate environment continues to persist, the probability of an economic downturn is constantly increasing. To put it simply, if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates for regulation, the probability of an economic downturn or even recession is significantly increasing. It is precisely in this context that the market will become more selective in pricing risk assets, and strategies that do not rely on direction, focus on cash flow and structural returns, will instead give higher weight. For example, the current AI is based on this principle. The popularity of AI has brought higher sales, better financing, and a larger market. But relatively speaking, BTC or cryptocurrencies rely more on liquidity, are more difficult to create cash flow, and are more affected by liquidity and policies. Of course, I still think BTC has a strong correlation with technology stocks, otherwise BTC's price may have already halved. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits